CORN HIGHLIGHTS:

• Corn futures ended the session mixed to mostly lower. It was a ‘risk-off’ day across the markets as traders digested the potential impacts of President Trump’s tariff announcement made late Monday afternoon. Strong selling pressure in the soybean market, along with negative movement in outside markets, limited the corn market’s potential, despite a supportive export sales report.
• The corn futures market “gapped” open on last night’s session on strong selling pressure. As corn prices challenged recent levels of support, value buyers stepped into the market, lifting corn prices off the lows of the session. The firm close brings some optimism to the corn market going into Friday’s trade. May corn is still 4 ¼ cents higher on the week going into Friday.
• The strong demand tone lifted corn futures off the session lows on Thursday as the USDA released weekly export sales on Thursday morning. For the week of March 27, U.S. exporters posted new sales of 1.173 MMT (46.2 mb) of corn for the marketing year. This was within expectations, and current corn sales are still trending 24% higher year over year. South Korea was the largest buyer of U.S. corn last week.
• Traders are closely monitoring a powerful spring storm moving across the U.S. Corn Belt. Heavy rainfall is forecast for key growing regions in the southern Corn Belt, where saturated soils may raise concerns about potential planting delays.
• Following the tariff announcements, the U.S. Dollar Index dropped sharply, reaching its lowest point since October. The weaker dollar should help mitigate some of the impacts of the tariffs, supporting the corn market as the demand outlook remains positive.

SOYBEAN HIGHLIGHTS:

• Soybeans closed sharply lower to end the day, following the steep tariffs imposed on China and other countries by President Trump yesterday afternoon. China bore the brunt of the tariffs at 34%, while other countries faced a baseline tariff of 10%. Soybeans and soybean oil declined amid concerns of trade retaliation, while soybean meal saw a slight increase.
• Export sales were released today but were mostly overshadowed by the tariff news. Soybean sales totaled 15.1 mb for 24/25 and 0.1 mb for 25/26, which was within the average trade estimates. Primary destinations were to China, Taiwan, and Indonesia. Last week’s export shipments of 30.9 mb were above the 13.1 mb needed each week to meet the USDA’s estimates.
• Earlier today, OPEC announced they would increase output by 411,000 barrels per day next month, equivalent to three monthly increments. They cited healthy fundamentals and a positive market outlook. This caused crude oil futures to drop by over $5 per barrel, which in turn led to a decline in soybean oil prices as well.
• U.S. soybean crush for February totaled 189 million bushels, slightly above the average trade estimate of 188.7 mb. However, this was still 2.3% below last year’s February total and significantly lower than January’s crush of 212.6 mb.

WHEAT HIGHLIGHTS:

• Chicago and Minneapolis wheat futures closed lower, while Kansas City posted modest gains. Despite the weakness from tariffs, wheat seemed to shrug off the impact to a large extent. The U.S. Dollar Index experienced a significant drop this session, which may have contributed to wheat’s relative strength; as of this writing, the index is down 1.73 at 102.07.
• The USDA reported an increase of 12.5 mb of wheat export sales for 24/25 and an increase of 3.5 mb for 25/26. Shipments last week totaled 18.4 mb, but this was below the 22.4 mb pace needed per week to reach their export goal of 835 mb. Total 24/25 sales commitments have reached 780 mb, which is up 13% from last year.
• The U.S. ag attaché to India has estimated their 25/26 wheat crop at 115 mmt. If realized, this would be a result of higher planting across 32.6 million hectares, as well as optimal growing conditions. However, this would assume normal weather through harvest.
• According to Interfax, the Russian ag ministry is said to have issued the order to distribute the remaining 2025 wheat export quota to 24 companies. The quota, in effect between February 15 and June 30, totals just 10.6 mmt. About 8.6 mmt was already shipped between February and early March.

DAIRY HIGHLIGHTS:

• President Trump announced a baseline 10% tariff with larger reciprocal tariffs on other trading partners yesterday afternoon.
• Hefty losses were faced in the Class III market with May and June dropping more than 40 cents.
• The block/barrel average gave back 3.6250 cents to move to $1.6450/lb while spot whey gained a quarter cent.
• Class IV losses were smaller than its Class III counterpart, but ranged from 4 to 19 cents in the May through December contracts.
• Spot butter and powder were 1.00 and 0.50 cents lower today, respectively.

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Author

Brandon Doherty