TFM Morning Update 04-07-2025

CORN

Corn is slightly lower to start the week as the equity markets continue to slide, but May corn has managed to stay above its 200-day moving average which is important support. The trade war has created an uncertain environment for commodities.
This Thursday, the USDA will release its WASDE report, and analysts are expecting a decline in corn ending stocks as a result of higher export demand. Argentinian and Brazilian corn production are expected to be lowered as well.
Friday’s CFTC report saw funds as net sellers of corn by 17,850 contracts which left them with a net long position of 56,757 contracts.

Soybeans are mixed this morning with the two front months slightly higher but all deferred months trading lower. Markets are still reeling from China’s tariff retaliation of 34% on all US imports and soybeans have been the hardest of the grains hit. Soybean meal is higher while soybean oil is lower.
In Brazil, soybean exports rose by 17% year over year in March, and harvest in the country is now 85.83% complete. This compares to 79.36% complete at this time last season.
Friday’s CFTC report saw funds as buyers of 13,112 contracts as of April 1, before the tariffs were announced, which left them with a net short position of 29,847 contracts. They were buyers of soybean oil by 38,856 contracts and sellers of bean meal by 16,683 contracts.

All three wheat classes are trading slightly higher to start the day, but May Chicago wheat is only 12 cents away from its contract low. Futures have been mostly rangebound over the past week but have been volatile with big losses in the equity markets.
The USDA ag attaché in India sees the 25/26 wheat crop at 115 mmt which would be a third year of record production. Planted acreage is expected to be higher and growing conditions expected to be optimal.
Friday’s CFTC report saw funds as sellers of wheat by 19,453 contracts which left them short 112,040 contracts. They sold 225 contracts of KC wheat which left them with a net short position of 45,675 contracts.

Amanda Brill