CORN HIGHLIGHTS:

• The front end of the corn markets saw buying strength to start the week as old crop contract finished with moderate gains. The expectation of a large acre forecast, and possible demand concerns due to tariffs, limited the deferred contracts on the session.
• USDA announced corn export inspections during the morning. For the week ending April 3, US exporters shipped 62.3 mb of corn. Total corn export shipments for the 2024-25 marketing year are at 1.401 bb, up 30% over last year.
• Heavy rainfall in the southern corn belt over the weekend brings concerns of possible delayed planting and a possible shifting of acres. Some analysts feel that producers could move away from some early planted soybeans and shift to additional corn acres.
• The April WASDE report, due Thursday, could show reduced corn carryout if USDA raises export demand. However, adjustments to feed use and tariff impacts may delay major changes until later reports.
• Recent rainfall in Brazil will likely support the development of the second corn crop. In addition, Brazil farmers were strong sellers as the tariff news supported Brazil cash prices on the prospects of improved global demand for Brazil grains.

SOYBEAN HIGHLIGHTS:

• Soybeans were mixed to end the day with the three front months higher but deferred contracts lower in bull spreading action. Futures were volatile today spiking as much as 20 cents higher this morning after a fake headline went out that Trump would be pausing the tariffs on all countries apart from China for 90 days. This news was debunked, and prices came back down shortly after.
• Soybean meal ended the day higher after May made a new contract low on Friday as South America sees good weather overall. Soybean oil followed crude oil lower which lost over 7 dollars a barrel on Friday amid the decline in equity markets and tariff negotiations.
• In Brazil, a major Amazon shipping route has been disrupted by Indigenous protesters and poor road conditions. Major global grains traders like Cargill and Bunge have important operations there, and the river port of Miritituba has seen shipping delays as a result.
• Friday’s CFTC report saw funds as buyers of 13,112 contracts as of April 1, before the tariffs were announced, which left them with a net short position of 29,847 contracts. They were buyers of soybean oil by 38,856 contracts and sellers of bean meal by 16,683 contracts.

WHEAT HIGHLIGHTS:

• Wheat led grain gains today, appearing least affected by tariff concerns. Volatility spiked after early reports of a 90-day tariff pause (excluding China) were later denied, trimming market highs. Strength in Matif wheat also supported U.S. prices.
• Weekly wheat export inspections reached 12.3 mb, bringing total 24/25 inspections to 650 mb, up 15% from last year. Wheat inspections are running behind the USDA’s estimated pace; total 24/25 exports are forecast at 835 mb, up 18% from the previous year.
• Over the weekend, temperatures in the Plains states dropped below freezing. While minimal damage is expected for the winter wheat crop, this may still have injected some weather premium into the market today.
• CFTC data shows managed money increased net short positions in Chicago wheat to 112,000 contracts as of April 1, with total shorts across all wheat classes at 186,000 — the highest since December 2023.

DAIRY HIGHLIGHTS:

• A steady round of bidding in the spot trade helped to give support to milk futures after a turbulent week. Most Class III contracts finished green while Class IV was just a bit soft during the day.
• Over the weekend, several countries announced they’d be lowering their tariffs on U.S. products to 0%, a sign that Trump’s plan is working. However, the markets are still as volatile as ever.
• The cheese market had a solid day, as blocks were bid 3c higher while barrels added 2c. This takes the block/barrel average back to $1.6750/lb.
• Both Class III and IV milk futures are trading pretty close to fair value based on the spot markets. This means for milk to rally here, bidding in the spot trade is a must.
• There are no significant news events or report releases for the dairy trade this week. Expect spot trade and global news to dictate price action.

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Author

Amanda Brill