CORN HIGHLIGHTS:

• The corn market remained bull-spread in the Tuesday session as front-end contracts saw buying strength as deferred contracts stayed under pressure. The market is caught between robust old crop demand and uncertainty over long-term demand, driven by tariff concerns and projections for a large corn acreage this spring.
• Volatility continues to dominate trade across all markets. On Monday, the Trump administration announced a new 50% tariff on Chinese goods in response to China’s retaliatory tariff issued last Friday. The new measure is set to take effect at midnight tonight.
• USDA announced a flash sale of corn on the export market.  Spain purchased 240,000MT (9.45 mb) of U.S. corn for the 2024-25 marketing year. This was the first announced flash sale of corn since March 14.
• The April WASDE report, due Thursday, could show reduced corn carryout if USDA raises export demand. However, adjustments to feed use and tariff impacts may delay major changes until later reports. Current analyst expectations are for corn carryout to be reduced to 1.510 mb, down 30 mb from the March report.

SOYBEAN HIGHLIGHTS:

• Soybeans were mixed again to end the day with the three front months higher but deferred contracts lower in more bull spreading. Equity markets initially rebounded today, which lifted all grains and livestock, but both faded into the end of the day. Soybean meal ended higher while soybean oil was lower.
• Today, the White House press secretary said that President Trump’s tariffs on China would go into effect just after midnight tonight. With the initial 20% tariffs he placed on China at the start of his term combined with the new 34% tariffs and now additional 50% tariffs as a result of China’s retaliation, this would bring China’s total tariff rate to 104%. There is optimism that an agreement can be made soon with China and all other countries.
• Yesterday’s export inspections report saw soybean inspections at 804k tons which compared to 813k the previous week and 492k tons a year ago. Primary destinations were to China, Egypt, and Mexico.
• In Brazil, a key Amazon shipping route has been disrupted by Indigenous protests and deteriorating road conditions. Global grain giants like Cargill and Bunge, which have significant operations in the region, are experiencing delays at the river port of Miritituba as a result.

WHEAT HIGHLIGHTS:

• Wheat closed with green on the screen for each class, supported by a lower US Dollar Index, higher close for Paris futures, and lower crop ratings compared with a year ago. Nationally, US winter wheat was rated 48% good to excellent, compared to 56% at this time last year, and 55% in the final November report.
• In addition to winter wheat ratings, the USDA also reported that 3% of the US spring wheat crop was planted as of April 6. This is steady with the five-year average and also in line with a year ago.
• Russia is expected to remain the top global wheat exporter through the 2024–25 season, according to Rusagrotrans. The country is projected to hold a 22% share of the global market (excluding flour), with total exports reaching 40.8 MMT.
• Argus has estimated Ukraine’s 2025–26 wheat crop at 23.7 MMT, unchanged from their November forecast. If realized, this would mark an increase from 22.3 MMT in 2024–25 and the highest output since the 2021–22 season. Projected yields for 2025–26 are 4.51 tons per hectare, above the five-year average of 4.34.

DAIRY HIGHLIGHTS:

• May Class III futures traded up to 53 cents higher at one point, hitting $17.31, before closing up 14 cents at $16.92.
• Spot cheese had an impressive 5.3750 cents gain to move to $1.72875/lb, its highest level since March 13th.
• Class IV did not do much today with the June and July contracts down 1 and 2 cents. Butter was up a penny, powder down a half cent.
• The Financial Times reports that the EU is dropping dairy products from its tariff list. This had buyers active this morning before the spot trade.

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Author

Brandon Doherty