TFM Morning Update 04-10-2025

CORN

Corn is trading higher this morning after The EU among other countries decided to pause their tariffs on the US following President Trump’s move to pause tariffs on most countries apart from China for whom he raised tariffs to 125%.
Yesterday, the Rosario Grain Exchange in Argentina significantly raised its corn output number to 48.5 mmt from 44.5 mmt previously. Brazil’s corn number has fallen slightly.
Estimates for today’s export sales report see corn sales in a range between 700k and 1,500k tons with an average guess of 1,000k tons. This would compare to 1,338k last week and 335k tons a year ago.

Soybeans are trading higher on the heels of the news that Trump would pause most tariffs other than China, and this morning the EU’s pause on tariffs for the US. China has not been a large buyer of US beans, so the tariff increase on China has not seemed to dull the bean market.
Later today, the USDA will release its WASDE report, and estimates show US ending stocks increasing slightly, exports being reduced, but world ending stocks increasing.
Estimates for today’s export sales report see soybean sales in a range between 200k and 700k tons with an average guess of 400k tons. This would compare to 413k last week and 305k last year.

Wheat is trading higher this morning along with the rest of the grain complex. While the grains have rebounded well over the past two days, equity markets have slipped this morning despite the tariff news on continued recession fears.
Estimates for today’s export sales report see wheat sales in a range from sales reductions of 100k tons to sales of 550k tons. This would compare to 435k last week and 355k last year.
For today’s WASDE report, US ending stocks for wheat are expected to increase slightly despite an expected decline in exports. World wheat stocks are expected to increase.

Amanda Brill