TFM Morning Update 04-11-2025

CORN

Corn is trading slightly higher this morning, supported by follow-through strength after the USDA raised its export estimate in Thursday’s WASDE report. This adjustment lowered projected 2024–25 carryout to 1.465 billion bushels—down 75 million from last month’s estimate.
Thursday morning’s USDA Export Sales report showed continued strong momentum, with total commitments running 25% ahead of 2023–24 levels. With the USDA currently projecting an 11% year-over-year increase, there’s still room for upward revisions if this pace holds.
Weather across the Corn Belt looks favorable for early fieldwork over the next two weeks, supporting planting progress. Reports of activity surfaced yesterday from parts of southern Iowa and Illinois, where growers are beginning to get into the fields.

Soybeans are trading near unchanged this morning, following overnight news that China will raise tariffs on all imported U.S. goods from 84% to 125%, effective April 12.
Thursday’s USDA report was relatively quiet for soybeans, with U.S. ending stocks trimmed by 5 million bushels from last month, now projected at 375 million bushels.
On the global front, the USDA once again held South American production estimates steady overall, but surprised the market with an upward revision to Brazil’s 2023–24 soybean production. The increase also boosted projected Brazilian soybean stocks for the current marketing year.

Wheat is trading higher this morning alongside corn, and is on track for solid week-over-week gains as market momentum continues to build.
The USDA once again lowered wheat export expectations in Thursday’s WASDE, cutting projections by 15 million bushels to 820 million for the season. On the balance sheet, ending stocks rose 27 million bushels from March. The USDA also made a slight reduction to seed use and, more notably, raised import estimates by another 10 million bushels.
With the USDA report behind us, market attention now shifts back to weather for developing wheat crops. According to Thursday morning’s Drought Monitor from the University of Nebraska–Lincoln, 32% of winter wheat growing areas remain in some form of drought.

Keegan Madigan