CORN HIGHLIGHTS:

• A larger than expected cut in the US corn carryout projection helped push corn futures strongly higher on Thursday after the USDA Supply/Demand report. July corn futures traded to its highest level since February 28 on the session.
• The USDA lowered corn carryout for the 2024-35 marketing year to 1.465 BB, down 75 mb from last month. The USDA added 100 mb to export demand but removed 25 mb from feed demand to reach the 75 mb reduction. The carryout of 1.465 bb was well below analysts’ expectations, supporting prices.
• Weekly export sales for corn were lackluster in this week’s USDA export sales report. For the week ending April3, US exporters posted new sales of 786,000 MT for the current marketing year. South Korea was the largest buyer of U.S. corn last week. Total corn export sales on the books are still supportive of prices and trending 25% over last year.
• Brazil ag agency, CONAB, released their projection for corn production to 124.76 MMt, up nearly 2 MMT from their March forecast. 1.3 MMT of that projected production raise came from the key second crop corn. In similar fashion, the Rosario Grain Exchange in Argentina raised its production forecast 4 MMt for 48.5 MMT from their March projection. Favorable weather overall has helped build the production boost.

SOYBEAN HIGHLIGHTS:

• Soybeans ended the day higher following positive tariff news out of the EU this morning, and gains were further supported by a slightly friendly WASDE report. However, export sales were disappointing, and China remains an unreliable buyer at this point. Soybean meal also finished higher, while soybean oil closed lower, tracking weakness in crude oil.
• Today’s WASDE report saw US soybean ending stocks falling slightly by 5 mb to 375 mb as crushings were increased by 10 mb. World stockpiles were increased to 122.5 mmt from 121.4 mmt, and both Brazilian and Argentinian soybean production were unchanged.
• Today’s export sales report was poor and below the bottom range of analyst expectations. China was the top buyer, but it was a small amount and likely purchased by Sino grain which is run by the Chinese government and is not subject to the tariffs. The USDA reported an increase of 6.3 mb of bean exports for 24/25 and none for 25/26. Last week’s export shipments of 28.1 were above the 13.0 mb needed each week.
• China has purchased only a minimal amount of soybeans so far this year, making the tariff news bullish overall, but particularly supportive for soybean oil. With tariffs on Chinese cooking oil now so high, imports are likely to slow, boosting domestic demand.

WHEAT HIGHLIGHTS:

• Wheat closed lower across all three classes following somewhat bearish data from the USDA report. However, a significant drop in the US Dollar Index may have helped limit the downside movement for wheat futures. Grain markets, in general, will remain sensitive to new tariff developments and headlines.
• On today’s WASDE report, US 24/25 wheat endings stocks came in at 846 mb. This was above 819 mb in March, as well as the average pre-report estimate of 822 mb. Global 24/25 wheat carryout was pegged at 260.7 mmt, which was down 0.1 mmt from the trade guess, but was above last month’s 260.1 mmt.
• Also on today’s report, the USDA increased US wheat imports by 10 mb and lowered exports by 15 mb. Furthermore, Russian exports were raised by 1 mmt, while Canada and Ukraine were also both up 0.5 mmt. There were declines to both EU and Australian exports, by 0.5 mmt each.
• The USDA reported an increase of 3.9 mb of wheat export sales for 24/25 and an increase of 4.0 mb for 25/26. Shipments last week totaled 12.5 mb, which falls below the 22.0 mb pace needed per week to reach the USDA’s export target. Sales commitments have reached 784 mb for 24/25, which is up 13% from last year.
• According to the USDA Foreign Agricultural Service, Pakistani wheat imports are expected to reach 1.7 mmt in the 25/26 season that begins in May. While this would fall below the 23/24 level, it would be 100,000 mt above the 24/25 season. The reason for the increase is because production is expected to fall 13% year over year to 27.5 mmt.

DAIRY HIGHLIGHTS:

• Class III futures were mostly higher today, although the changes from Wednesday’s close were mostly minor.
• Spot cheese pushed its weekly gains to 11.00 cents by adding another 2.00 cents today, closing at $1.76/lb. Spot whey gained a half cent.
• The Class IV contracts were either unchanged or slightly higher on the day. May futures finished at $17.99.
• Spot butter was 2.00 cents higher on 24 loads traded, entering Friday up 3.75 cents on the week. Spot powder settled 1.00 cents higher.

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Author

Amanda Brill