TFM Morning Update 04-14-2025

CORN

Corn is trading lower this morning following impressive gains on Friday and a weekly gain of 30 cents in the May contract. The WASDE report was friendly, the 90-day tariff pause was supportive, and planting is beginning with some weather concerns.
In Brazil, corn prices are beginning to move higher on stronger demand, stopping a previously downward trend. Many buyers need to replenish inventories for the coming holiday weeks, and sellers are asking for higher prices.
Friday’s CFTC report saw funds as sellers of corn as of April 8. They sold 3,181 contracts leaving them with a net long position of 53,576 contracts. Since then, they are estimated to have bought back 27,500 contracts.

Soybeans are trading slightly lower in the front months while new crop contracts are higher this morning. Last week, May soybeans gained a whopping 65-3/4 cents despite the trade war with China. Both soybean meal and oil are lower to start the day.
The NOPA crush for March is expected to increase to 197.6 million bushels which would be the highest level for March in any year. This comes after February crush was a 5-month low.
Friday’s CFTC report saw funds as sellers of 20,600 contracts of soybeans increasing their net short position to 50,447 contracts. They bought 35,887 contracts of bean oil and 3,103 contracts of meal. Funds are estimated to have bought back 26,000 contracts of beans over the past three days.

Wheat is trading lower this morning but saw impressive gains on Friday and weekly gains in the May contract of 26-3/4 cents pulling wheat well off its recent lows. There are forecasts that are showing the possibility of rainfall in HRW wheat areas by next weekend that could be pressuring markets this morning.
With the USDA report behind us, market attention now shifts back to weather for developing wheat crops. According to Thursday morning’s Drought Monitor from the University of Nebraska–Lincoln, 32% of winter wheat growing areas remain in some form of drought.
Friday’s CFTC report saw funds as buyers of 9,908 contracts of Chicago wheat leaving them with a net short position of 102,132 contracts. They sold 4,159 contracts of KC wheat, which increased their net short position to 49,834 contracts.

Amanda Brill