TFM Midday Update 04-11-2025

CORN

Corn remains higher at midday, marking its sixth consecutive day of gains, supported in part by the EU’s announcement to pause any tariff countermeasures.
Drought conditions across U.S. corn-growing regions declined by 11 percentage points, now affecting only 28% of the area.
Argentine corn harvest was slowed down by the rain and moved to 23% completed. The Buenos Aires Exchange left production unchanged at 49 mmt while the Rosario’s exchange rose their corn production by 4 mmt to 48.5 mmt.
CONAB raised Brazil’s corn production by 2 mmt to 124.7 mmt, just below USDA’s 126 mmt.

Soybeans continue to move higher at midday, despite escalating trade tensions between the U.S. and China. Soybean oil and soybean meal are also posting gains midday Friday.
Rumors persist that China will continue purchasing large volumes of Brazilian soybeans through September, pushing Brazil’s FOB values higher and placing them at a premium of nearly 20 cents per bushel to the U.S.
The percentage of U.S. soybean-growing areas under drought dropped 11 points over the past week to just 22%, following much-needed rainfall.
USDA confirms the sale of 121,000 tons of US soybeans for delivery to unknown destinations. 55 tons is for 24/25 and the remaining 66 ton is for 25/26.

Wheat continues to push higher at midday, managing to overcome some of the bearish pressure from Thursday’s WASDE report.
Wheat futures are gaining throughout Friday’s session, supported by a weakening U.S. Dollar Index, which has dropped to its lowest level since last September.
With warm and dry conditions expected in the southwestern Plains, the extended U.S. forecast has led to some fund short-covering early Friday. At the same time, the Southern Plains hard winter wheat regions are facing extreme dryness, which could result in another drop in crop conditions.
Western Australia’s planted wheat area is expected to decline by 400,000 hectares, or 9%, while warm, dry conditions are forecast to persist in the Black Sea region through the end of April. Meanwhile, ongoing dryness in Eurasian wheat areas is also affecting winter wheat.

Lauren VandenLangenberg