TFM Morning Update 04-16-2025

The CME and Total Farm Marketing Offices will be Closed Friday, April 18, in Observance of Good Friday

CORN

Corn is trading higher this morning and have come back from lower prices in overnight trade. Good export demand has kept prices supported despite the lack of Chinese buying. Forecasts show wetter weather in the Corn Belt over the weekend.
Estimates for the EIA report see ethanol production lower than last week at 1.004m b/d compared to 1.021m last week. Stockpiles are estimated lower at 26.803m bbl compared to 27.034m a week ago.
In Ukraine, 25/26 corn production could increase significantly from the previous year to 27.9 mmt. This would be up 14% and would be due to increases in harvested area and an increase in baseline yields.

Soybeans are trading higher to start the day with support from both soybean meal and oil. Overnight, futures dropped nearly 10 cents to the 50-day moving average before recovering.
NOPA soybean crush for March was seen at 194.55 million bushels and was below the average estimate of 197.43 mb. This was third straight month that crush declined and compared to 196.40 mb in March last year.
Brazilian soybean exports are seen at 14.5 mmt for the month of April which compares to a previous estimate of 13.3 mmt. At this point, China is buying virtually all of its soybeans from Brazil and basically none from the US.

All three wheat classes are trading higher this morning and have recovered from lower prices overnight. Futures have trended lower over the past few days on wetter forecasts in HRW wheat areas, but US wheat remains one of the cheapest in the world.
In Argentina, a bumper wheat harvest could reportedly hit a record if the export tax cuts are extended. The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange is forecasting the second largest wheat production ever for the country.
The US dollar is down sharply and is now at levels not seen since April 2022 which makes US wheat more affordable for importing countries.

Amanda Brill