TFM Morning Update 04-21-2025

CORN

Corn is trading higher this morning and though it is technically overbought, it appears to be forming a bull flag which could see prices break out above 5 dollars if it plays out. The US dollar is sharply lower which is likely supporting all grains.
Strong export demand has helped keep prices supported in corn, and Thursday’s export sales report saw 1,572k tons of corn were exported. Mexico was the top buyer followed by Japan and Spain, China was not a buyer.
Friday’s CFTC report saw funds as buyers of corn in a big way as of April 15. They bought 70,997 contracts which increased their net long position to 124,573 contracts.

Soybeans are trading higher this morning along with the rest of the grain complex as a result of the significantly lower dollar which is at its lowest level since March 2022. Both soybean meal and oil are trading higher despite losses in crude oil of $1.50 a barrel.
In March, it was seen that Chinese soybean imports from the US jumped by 12% from the same period last year, but this was before the tariffs were implemented. Brazil continues to dominate the market to China.
Friday’s CFTC report saw funds as buyers of soybeans as of April 15. The bought back 76,616 contracts which flipped them to a new net long position of 26,169 contracts. They bought 10,834 contracts of bean oil and 28,030 contracts of meal.

All three wheat classes are trading higher to start the week despite a rainfall forecast that is expected to be beneficial for HRW wheat areas. There was too much rain in some areas of the southeast Corn Belt over the weekend.
SovEcon has increased the Russian wheat output estimates for 2025 to 79.7 mmt which would be 1.1 mmt above the previous years production. Russia has said that 90% of the winter crops are in good or satisfactory condition.
Friday’s CFTC report saw funds as buyers of Chicago wheat by 5,693 contracts which left them net short 96,439 contracts. They bought back 2,462 contracts of KC wheat leaving them short 47,372 contracts.

Amanda Brill