TFM Daily Market Summary 04-21-2025

CORN HIGHLIGHTS:

  • Corn futures started the week on a softer note as risk-off sentiment, triggered by heavy selling in the equity markets, limited upside potential. Despite strong demand and a sharp break in the U.S. Dollar Index, corn struggled to find footing throughout the session.
  • The U.S. Dollar Index continued its downward trend, trading to its lowest level since April 2022. The weaker dollar has helped offset the impact of potential tariffs, kept U.S. corn competitive in the export market, and encouraged fund money flow into the commodity sector.
  • USDA released weekly export inspections during Monday’s session. For the week ending April 17, U.S. exporters shipped 1.703 MMT (67 mb) of corn. This total was above market analysts’ expectations and remains at a strong pace. Current corn inspections are running 29% over last year and exceed expectations to reach the USDA export target for the current marketing year by approximately 180 mb.
  • Traders are also awaiting Monday afternoon’s USDA Crop Progress report, with close attention on potential planting delays following recent wet weather across parts of the Corn Belt. However, some regions may surprise to the upside, as planting progress for corn and soybeans had been gaining momentum prior to the rains.
  • Expectations for South American corn production are also trending higher. Recent late-season rainfall has benefited crops in key areas, with Brazil now potentially on track for a corn crop exceeding 125 MMT. This could create additional pressure on U.S. export demand in the summer months.

SOYBEAN HIGHLIGHTS:

  • Soybean futures ended lower Monday, giving back overnight gains as widespread bearishness across outside markets pressured the entire grain complex. Equities, the U.S. Dollar, crude oil, and bond markets all traded lower amid tariff uncertainties and reports of tensions between President Trump and Fed Chairman Jerome Powell. Both soybean meal and soybean oil futures also closed weaker.
  • In March, Chinese soybean imports from the U.S. rose 12% compared to the same period last year; however, this increase occurred before the latest round of tariffs were imposed. Brazil remains the dominant supplier to China’s soybean market.
  • Today’s export inspections report was once again middle of the road for soybeans where corn and wheat were above expectations. Soybean inspections totaled 20.2 million bushels for the week ending April 17. Total inspections for 24/25 are now at 1.568 bb, up 11% from the previous year.
  • Friday’s CFTC report showed funds turning bullish on soybeans as of April 15, buying back 76,616 contracts to flip to a new net long position of 26,169 contracts. Funds were also active in the products, purchasing 10,834 contracts of soybean oil and 28,030 contracts of soybean meal.crude oil this week of around 3 dollars a barrel.

WHEAT HIGHLIGHTS:

  • Chicago wheat futures led the complex lower on Monday, despite the U.S. Dollar falling to a new near-term low and a positive close in Paris milling wheat futures. Pressure on U.S. wheat was likely tied to beneficial rainfall across the Southern Plains over the weekend, with more precipitation in the forecast. Additional spillover weakness from the equity markets may have weighed on sentiment, as the Dow Jones Industrial Average was down over 1,200 points at midday.
  • Weekly wheat inspections were pegged at 18.7 mb, which brings total 24/25 inspections to 691 mb, up 14% from last year. This is below the USDA’s estimated pace – they are estimating exports at 820 mb, which would be up 16% from the year prior.
  • According to IKAR, Russian wheat export values ended last week at $250-$252/mt, which was steady with the week before. Additionally, SovEcon said that Russia exported 450,000 mt of wheat last week versus 470,000 mt the prior week. SovEcon is estimating Russian wheat exports in April will total 2 mmt, which is far below the 5 mmt from April last year.
  • Chinese customs data indicates that for the month of March, their nation’s wheat and wheat flour imports totaled 190,000 mt – this is down 89.4% year over year for that month. Additionally, year to date imports declined 93% vs last year to just 300,000 mt.

DAIRY HIGHLIGHTS:

  • Spot cheese fell 4.625 cents today, which had a hand in Class III futures turning lower late morning. Spot whey was a half cent lower.
  • Class III futures were unchanged or lower in the nearby months, but the deferred months found some buying.
  • The Class IV contracts were green today with May up a nickel but further out months as much as 30 cents higher.
  • Spot butter started the week off by closing 2.25 cents lower while powder was up a penny.

Total Farm Marketing and TFM refer to Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., Stewart-Peterson Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of the National Futures Association. Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with all three companies. TFM Market Updates is a service of Stewart-Peterson Inc. Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition.

Author

Amanda Brill

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