CORN HIGHLIGHTS:

• Selling pressure hit the corn market on Tuesday, as faster-than-expected planting progress sparked selling across both old and new crop contracts. July corn futures closed at their lowest level since April 10, with technical charts now signaling further weakness.
• This week’s USDA Crop Progress report showed 12% of the corn crop planted, up 8% from the previous week and ahead of market expectations. The five-year average for this time is 10%. The strong pace eased earlier concerns about potential planting delays due to wet weather.
• Expectations for South American corn production are also trending higher. Recent late-season rainfall has benefited crops in key areas, with Brazil now potentially on track for a corn crop exceeding 125 MMT. In addition, Argentina weather is drying out, allowing for harvest to progress of their corn crop.
• A firmer U.S. Dollar and a recovery in equity markets contributed to long liquidation in corn futures, triggering money flow out of the market and pushing prices toward key support levels.
• With First Notice Day for May corn contracts set for April 30, producers will need to price basis contracts or bushels, while market participants must exit long May positions or risk delivery. This window often brings additional selling pressure into the market.

SOYBEAN HIGHLIGHTS:

• Soybean futures closed higher on Tuesday, defying losses in corn and wheat. Favorable planting weather has kept pace moving steadily, yet soybeans have remained rangebound, trading within a 15-cent band over the past week. Futures continue to struggle to close above the 200-day moving average, though a bull flag formation is developing. Notably, gains in soybeans came even as both soybean meal and oil futures ended the day lower.
• Sentiment in the soybean market was buoyed by comments from U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, who told an investor group he expects a trade deal with China to be reached “sooner than later.” Currently, China continues to source most of its soybean needs from Brazil.
• Yesterday’s Crop Progress report saw that 8% of the soybean crop has been planted which compares to the average trade guess of 7% and 2% a week ago. Last year at this time, the crop was 7% planted, and the 5-year average pace is 5%.
• In March, Chinese soybean imports from the U.S. rose 12% compared to the same period last year; however, this increase occurred before the latest round of tariffs were imposed. Brazil remains the dominant supplier to China’s soybean market.

WHEAT HIGHLIGHTS:

• Wheat closed with modest losses in all three futures classes, pressured new contract lows for Matif wheat, a rebound in the U.S. Dollar Index, rain in the forecast for the Southern Plains, and a general lack of fresh friendly news.
• According to the USDA’s crop progress report, winter wheat was rated 45% good to excellent as of April 20. This is down 2% from the previous week and 5% from last year; the winter crop is also reported to be 15% headed. As for spring wheat, 17% of the crop is planted, which compared with 14% a year ago and a five-year average of 12% complete. Just 2% of the spring crop has emerged, in line with last year and the average.
• Weather forecasts call for mostly dry conditions and near- to below-average temperatures in India over the next couple of weeks, which should aid the country’s wheat harvest. In contrast, dryness in northern China is raising concerns over wheat crop development.
• Russian wheat exports continue to run behind last year’s pace. SovEcon has estimated Russia’s April wheat exports at 2 mmt, which is below both the 5 mmt shipped last year, as well as a five-year average of 3.5 mmt.

DAIRY HIGHLIGHTS:

• March Milk Production improved 0.90% year-over-year coming in at 19.848 billion pounds. Dairy cow numbers saw an increase of 8,000 head from February.
• Class III milk futures were mixed on the day with April through June contracts trading higher while the second half of the year was mostly lower.
• Spot cheese was relatively flat on the day, gaining just 0.1250 cents to close at $1.7925/lb. Spot whey was unchanged at $0.4775/lb.
• Class IV milk futures were uneventful on the day with just the June contract seeing any movement with a loss of 2 cents to close at $17.73
• Both spot butter and powder gained just 0.25 cents on the day closing at $2.3225/lb and $1.1850/lb respectively.

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Author

Brandon Doherty