TFM Morning Update 04-24-2025

CORN

Corn futures are trading higher this morning after the May contract closed lower for 4 consecutive days, finding support at the 100-day moving average yesterday and moving higher from there.
Estimates for today’s export sales report see corn sales in a range between 800k and 1,400k tons with an average guess of 1,075k. This would compare to 1,572k last week and 1,561k last year. Export demand has been firm despite the lack of China as a buyer.
EU corn imports are up 12% year-over-year at 16.8 MMT, while exports have fallen 46%. Meanwhile, one crop scout raised Brazil’s corn crop estimate to 127 MMT, up from 119 MMT last year.

Soybeans are trading higher and are above the 200-day moving average that has been resistance. Neither the May or July contracts have managed to close above that level. Soybean meal is lower while bean oil is trading higher.
Estimates for today’s export sales report see soybean sales in a range between 300k and 700k tons with an average guess of 463k. This would compare to 737k last week and 331k tons the previous year.
USDA reports U.S. soybean planting at 8%, ahead of the 5% average. Some analysts think favorable corn weather could pull more acres away from soybeans, potentially trimming final soybean acreage.

Wheat is mixed this morning with the front month in Chicago wheat slightly higher but the deferred months lower along with KC and Minneapolis wheat. Wheat futures have struggled as planting ramps up for spring wheat, and export demand remains sluggish.
Estimates for today’s export sales report see wheat sales in a range between reductions of 50k tons and sales of 500k tons with an average guess of 263k tons. This would compare to 350k last week and 454k tons a year ago at this time.
Rainfall in the U.S. South and East could stress the soft red winter (SRW) wheat crop, while EU models show potential rains for the dry U.S. Plains. Russia’s forecast calls for only scattered light showers.

Amanda Brill