TFM Midday Update 4-23-2025

CORN

Corn futures remain under pressure at midday, weighed down by the potential extended U.S. planting window due to ongoing weather conditions, as well as improving crop outlooks in South America.
Beneficial rainfall across key areas of Brazil’s safrinha corn belt prompted Dr. Cordonnier to raise his Brazilian production estimate by 3 MMT to 125 million — still slightly below the USDA’s 126 MMT projection. He also increased his Argentine corn forecast by 1 MMT to 49 million, just under the USDA’s 50 MMT estimate.
U.S. corn remains the cheapest on the global market, but strong export competition is expected to ramp up once Brazil’s safrinha harvest begins in June and July.
Ethanol production rebounded to 304 million gallons, up from 297.5 million the previous week, marking an 8% increase year-over-year. The production process utilized 103.5 million bushels of corn, averaging 14.8 million bushels per day.

Soybeans are trading higher at midday, supported by reports of “friendly” trade talks and tariff negotiations between President Trump and China. Strength is also seen across the soy complex, with soybean meal and soybean oil both posting gains.
China reportedly bought up to 8 cargoes of Brazilian beans yesterday and is set to auction of 624,000 tons of beans from state reserves.
Soybeans are getting a slight lift as producers increasingly discuss the likelihood of shifting even more acreage to corn this season, citing ongoing weather and pricing concerns. The current forecast continues to favor corn planting, potentially trimming soybean acreage further.
The USDA reported that 8% of the U.S. soybean crop was planted as of Sunday, up 2 percentage points from the previous week and ahead of the five-year average of 5%. In the Midwest, Missouri leads with 15% of its crop planted, while Iowa follows at 11%.

Wheat futures are lower at midday across all three classes, pressured by forecasts calling for increased rain chances in the Southern Plains, which could benefit hard red winter wheat conditions.
Wheat is receiving some support as drought conditions persist in the Black Sea region, with China now also experiencing drought in its winter wheat areas, which could further tighten global supply.
As drought conditions in China worsen, there is growing speculation that wheat purchases could be included in the trade deal with the U.S. if China’s domestic wheat conditions do not improve.
Ukraine and Russian wheat production remain critical to global supplies this year. While crop conditions are holding steady, soil moisture deficits persist, and additional rainfall will be crucial to avoid potential production declines.

Lauren VandenLangenberg