CORN HIGHLIGHTS:

• Corn futures broke a three-session losing strength to finish with moderate gains on Thursday. Strong export performance, buying in the soybean market and the volatility of options expiration helped triggered buying in the corn market on the session.
• USDA released weekly export sales on Thursday morning.  For the week ending April 17, USDA reported new crop sales of 1.152 MMT (45.4 mb). Japan was the largest buyer of US corn on the week. Corn export sales are up 26% over last year and still ahead of the USDA pace to reach the marketing year export target.
• New crop export sales for the 2025-26 marketing year are starting slowly at 458,377 MT (18.04 mb). These total trails last year’s sale pace by approximately 400,000MT for the same time period. The market will be watching 2025-26 sales as the US is expected to plant a record number of acres, strong South American crops, and the impacts of tariffs on corn exports in the future.
• May corn options expire on Friday, and prices tend to be more volatile in the expiration window. This is followed by First Notice Day on April 30. These events can trigger volatility in the front end of the corn market.

SOYBEAN HIGHLIGHTS:

• Soybeans ended the day higher, gaining throughout the day and finally managing to close above the 200-day moving average for the first time since February. Support came from continued hopes for a trade negotiation with China along with a breakout higher in soybean oil. Soybean meal finished the day lower.
• Today’s export inspections report was on the poor side for soybeans. The USDA reported an increase of 10.2 million bushels of export sales for 24/25 and a decrease of 3,700 bushels for 25/26. This was on the low end of analyst estimates. Primary destinations were to Mexico, the Netherlands, and unknown destinations.
• Last week’s export shipments of 18.2 million bushels were above the 11.8 mb needed each week to meet the USDA’s export estimate of 1.825 bb in 24/25. Soybean sales commitments are now up 13% from a year ago. China was not an active buyer this week.
• U.S. soybean planting is off to a strong start, with 8% of the crop planted — ahead of the five-year average. Near-term rains are expected, but longer-range forecasts show a drier May across North America, raising concerns about summer drought potential and adding weather premium to prices.

WHEAT HIGHLIGHTS:

• Despite a weaker start to the day, wheat managed to eke out a positive close across all three classes. Managed funds are estimated to hold a net short position of around 145,000 contracts heading into the session, and Kansas City futures remain technically oversold. Both factors could set the stage for a short-covering rally—if a catalyst emerges to spark it.
• The USDA reported a decrease of 5.3 mb of wheat export sales for 24/25, and an increase of 13.7 mb for 25/26. Shipments last week at 17.6 mb fell under the 21.9 mb pace needed per week to reach the USDA’s export goal of 820 mb. Total 24/25 sales commitments have reached 782 mb, up 13% from last year.
• According to the USDA, as of April 22, an estimated 33% of US winter wheat acres are experiencing drought conditions. This is down 1% from last week, as recent rains have fallen across much of the central and southern US. During the same timeframe, however, spring wheat acres in drought increased by 6% to 49%.
• According to their supply minister, Egypt is expected to import 4.5 mmt of wheat during the 25/26 season (which begins in July). This would be below the 4.8 mmt estimated so far this year. Additionally, they stated that current wheat stockpiles are expected to be sufficient through late July.

DAIRY HIGHLIGHTS:

• Spot cheese had its worst trading day in more than seven weeks with a loss of 7.75 cents to move to $1.6950/lb. Spot whey was a penny higher to $0.51/lb.
• The week spot traded had the remaining 2025 contracts down between 22 and 33 cents. May futures fell to $18.32.
• Spot butter was unchanged, entering Friday down 1.75 cents on the week, while powder is up 1.50 cents with another half cent gain today to close at $1.1875/lb.
• The nearby Class IV contracts were under pressure as well, likely feeling some heat from the break in the Class III contracts.
• Today’s March Cold Storage report was friendly on cheese, with stocks down 4% YoY, while butter was bearish with stocks up 4% from March 2024.

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Author

Amanda Brill