TFM Midday Update 4-25-2025

CORN

Corn futures turned mixed at midday as traders reacted to growing optimism around trade and speculation that the USDA may raise its corn export projections, given the current strong pace of exports.
Argentina is experiencing favorable weather conditions for its harvest, with progress reaching 30% completion. This week, conditions have improved by 3%, contributing to the overall positive outlook. In Brazil, weather for the safrinha crop has also improved, supporting better growth prospects for the season.
Over the next five days, precipitation is expected to concentrate in the northern Plains, Oklahoma, Texas, and the Eastern Corn Belt. However, the 8-10 day forecast indicates a shift towards below-normal precipitation for most of the Midwest, except for the southwest Plains, which may still receive more consistent rainfall.
Ukraine’s planting pace is 17% behind average due to cold temperatures into early May, which has been limiting process and their export pace so far this marketing year has reached 18.25 mt, down from 22.23 a year ago.

Midday trade saw soybean markets turn mixed, despite earlier session gains driven by possible signs of a resolution between the U.S. and China regarding tariffs and trade.
The Philippines has announced its willingness to purchase more U.S. soybeans, further fueling optimism in the market. The potential for new non-Chinese demand for U.S. soybeans remains a key driving force for the soybean market.
The Buenos Aries Grain Exchange reported soybean conditions in Argentina are up 7% from the prior week to 43% good/excellent and the harvest pace has now reached 14.5%.

Wheat prices are pushing higher at midday for the second consecutive day, following the Paris milling wheat contract’s lead and as the U.S. Dollar stabilizes after its recent decline.
Early today, much-needed rain showers are moving across Oklahoma, Kansas, and Nebraska, providing essential relief and boosting soil moisture for the wheat crop.
An area of concern is the North China Plains, where drought conditions appear to be worsening as China’s wheat crop enters the heading stage.

Lauren VandenLangenberg