TFM Midday Update 04-30-2025

CORN

Corn has turned higher at midday, supported by improved ethanol production figures.
USDA confirms the sale of 120,000 tons of U.S. corn for delivery to unknown destinations for the 24/25 year.
While planting progress in the eastern Corn Belt remains behind schedule, the 2nd week of the extended forecast is now calling for below-normal precipitation, offering an ideal window for farmers to make up lost ground.
Ethanol production rebounded to 306 million gallons, up from 304 million the previous week, and up 5% YOY. There was 104 mb of corn used in the production process.
Ethanol stocks slipped to 25.4 million barrels, slightly below expectations and the lowest in 15 weeks.

Soybeans are trading lower at midday, extending yesterday’s decline as improved weather conditions across the U.S. support continued planting progress and reduce the previously built-in weather premium. The entire soy complex is posting losses at midday.
Weather models are beginning to shift, indicating a drier pattern in the second week of the extended forecast for the eastern Corn Belt. This development is expected to benefit soybean planting, providing an opportunity for states that are currently behind schedule to make significant progress.
Dr. Cordonnier raised his Argentina bean production forecast to 50 mt, up 1 million from last week, and is slightly above the USDA forecast of 49 mt.
Argentine farmer soybean sales are reported at the slowest pace in 11 years, despite a recent export tax cut, as growers remain hesitant amid concerns over potential currency devaluation.

Wheat is trading higher at midday driven by adverse weather in major wheat producing regions outside of the U.S.
Drought conditions have largely subsided in most of Oklahoma and northern Texas, as ongoing heavy rainfall continues to bring significant relief to the region.
Drought risk is diminishing across the Great Plains, with the Week 2 extended forecast calling for significant rainfall in western Kansas and eastern Colorado—two regions that have faced prolonged dryness.
The U.S. attache lowered Australia’s wheat production estimate to 31 mt, down from 34.1 last year due to a smaller harvested area.
LSEG continues to leave their Russian wheat production estimate unchanged at 79.5 mt but said more rain is needed in the region to reach this estimate.

Lauren VandenLangenberg