TFM Daily Market Summary 5-1-2025

CORN HIGHLIGHTS:

  • The corn market saw a quiet session with mixed trade, as front-end futures experienced light selling pressure. July corn futures have declined in three of the past four sessions and are down 13 cents for the week heading into Friday’s trade.
  • USDA released weekly export sales on Thursday morning. For the week ending April 24, U.S. exporters sold 1,014 MMT 39.9 mb) of corn for the 2024-25 marketing year and 245,000 MT (9.6 mb) for 2025-26. Old crop sales were within expectations, but well off the pace for the past few weeks. Total sales for the current marketing year are up 26% from last year and corn export demand has remained strong.
  • The U.S. dollar index has formed a short-term bottom as trade war concerns have eased, with recent economic data possibly signaling a potential rate cut from the Federal Reserve. A stronger U.S. dollar can hurt U.S. competitiveness on the global stage and may limit any price rallies in corn futures.
  • Deliveries against the May corn futures have been light, (25 contract each day), which should help support prices as delivered bushels aren’t retendered back into the market and adding selling pressure. The lack of deliveries is also reflective of a relatively tight nearby corn supply.

SOYBEAN HIGHLIGHTS:

  • Soybeans finished the day higher, snapping a two-day losing streak, though July futures remain within a tight trading range, hovering around the 200-day moving average. The market is likely to see a breakout in either direction, with weather conditions playing a key role. Today, soybean oil helped push prices higher, buoyed by a rise in crude oil, while soybean meal posted losses.
  • Today’s Export Sales report was once again middle of the road for soybeans, within analyst trade ranges. The USDA reported an increase of 15.7 million bushels of export sales for 24/25 and an increase of 1.8 mb for 25/26. Primary destinations were to China, Germany, and the Netherlands. Last week’s export shipments of 21.6 mb were above the 11.5 mb needed each week.
  • The Argentinian soybean harvest may be yielding better than expected. Dr. Cordonnier, crop analyst, has raised his projection for the Argentina soybean crop to 50 MMT, up 1 MMT from his last projection. This is slightly above USDA projections at 49 MMT.
  • According to the EIA, soybean oil used for U.S. biofuel production fell in February to 576 million pounds. This compares to January where soybean oil for biodiesel was 654 million pounds.

WHEAT HIGHLIGHTS:

  • After a two-sided trade, wheat futures closed in a similar fashion. Light bull spreading was observed in Chicago futures, where front-month contracts finished slightly higher, while deferred contracts ended lower. Kansas City futures were mostly lower, and Minneapolis futures were mixed. Wheat futures remain oversold and in need of a correction, but today’s jump in the U.S. dollar may have limited any rally potential.
  • The USDA reported an increase of 2.6 mb of wheat export sales for 24/25 and an increase of 8.8 mb for 25/26. Shipments last week totaled 18.1 mb, which falls below the 22.6 mb pace needed per week to reach their export goal of 820 mb. Total shipments have reached 682 mb for 24/25, which is up 11% from last year.
  • According to the Indian Food Secretary, their government has purchased 25.6 mmt of domestic wheat for state reserves. This is far above the total purchased up to this point last year, at 20.5 mmt. In total, India is expected to purchase 31.2 mmt for their stockpiles.
  • After recent rains, both winter and spring wheat growing regions in the U.S. saw big declines in drought readings. According to the USDA, as of April 29, an estimated 23% of winter wheat acres are experiencing drought conditions. This is down 10% from the week before. Additionally, spring wheat acres in drought fell from 49% to 37% during the same time period.

DAIRY HIGHLIGHTS:

  • Class III milk futures carried over gains into the new month with futures contracts improving 3-37 cents. June and July contracts closed 37 cents higher to close at $17.74 and $18.14 respectively.
  • Spot cheese found some additional bidding today, making a 3 cent gain to close at $1.7450/lb. Whey was up slightly to close at $0.5025/lb.
  • Class IV milk was down slightly on the day on light volume trading. The August futures contract was the only one to see a slight improvement of 3 cents, closing at $18.33.
  • Spot butter bounced back above the $2.30/lb level, closing at at $2.31/lb. Powder gained half a cent today, closing at $1.18/lb.

 

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Author

Amanda Brill

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