TFM Morning Update 05-05-2025

CORN

Corn is lower to start the week ahead of the planting progress report this afternoon in which trade expects a big jump in planting thanks to beneficial weather. Demand has been firm which has kept prices supported overall.
Mexico is now set to become the top importer of US ag exports according to CoBank. Last year, ag exports to Mexico rose to 31.4 billion dollars.
Friday’s CFTC report saw funds as sellers of corn as of April 29. They sold a whopping 41,476 contracts which lowered their net long position to 71,329 contracts.

Soybeans are lower this morning but remain rangebound with futures hovering around the 200-day moving average. Pressure comes from weaker crude and palm oil prices after OPEC said it would likely increase crude production. Soybean meal is higher while soybean oil is lower.
Palm oil reserves in Malaysia most likely increased the most since August 2023 as a result of increased production following a period of poor weather and floods which caused inventories to shrink. This has pressured soybean oil as well.
Friday’s CFTC report saw funds as buyers of soybeans by 7,135 contracts which increased their net long position to 38,202 contracts. They bought 12,488 contracts of bean oil and sold 24,716 contracts of bean meal.

Wheat is mixed to start the day with Chicago and KC wheat lower but Minneapolis wheat higher. Minneapolis wheat has been more supported as trade worries that the trade war with Canada will impact imports of Canadian wheat.
The USDA attaché for Canada sees wheat production in the country increasing by 2% in 25/26 citing an increase in planted area for wheat, corn, and oats, and a decrease in planted acreage for barley.
Friday’s CFTC report saw funds as sellers of Chicago wheat by 31,386 contracts which increased their net short position to 121,415 contracts. They sold 10,645 contracts of KC wheat which increased their net short position to 67,269 contracts.

Amanda Brill