TFM Morning Update 05-07-2025

CORN

Talk of improved U.S.-China relations is supporting futures. Traders expect the 2024/25 U.S. corn carryout near 1,443 million bushels vs the USDA’s 1,465, and project the 2025/26 carryout at 2,020 million bushels. Expectations for the 2025 U.S. corn crop are around 15.76 billion bushels, compared to 14.87 billion last year.
U.S. export corn prices are competitive at about $210/MT, compared to Ukraine at $250, Argentina at $212, and Ukraine September prices also near $210.
EU corn imports are up 10% year over year, while exports are down 46%. U.S. weather remains mixed — dry in the north and wet across the Delta and Southeast.

Soybeans are reacting to news of U.S./China talks. Dalian soybean, soymeal, and soyoil futures were higher, while palm oil moved lower on seasonal production increases and softer exports.
The trade expects the 2024/25 U.S. soybean carryout near 369 million bushels vs USDA’s 374, and 2025/26 at 362 million. For 2024/25, U.S. exports will be key. The expected 2025 U.S. soybean crop is projected at 4.338 billion bushels, slightly below last year’s 4.366 billion.
EU oilseed imports are up 8% year over year, meal imports are up 11%, while vegetable oil imports are down 24%.

July is trading near 5.43 and back-testing 200-day moving average resistance.
The trade expects the 2025/26 U.S. wheat carryout near 863 million bushels and projects the 2025 wheat crop at 1.885 billion bushels, down from last year’s 1.971 billion. The Oklahoma crop tour estimated the 2025 crop at 101 million bushels, versus 108 million last year.
There is talk that China purchased Canadian wheat, possibly due to opportunistic buying or concerns about dry weather in China. Meanwhile, some believe funds and commercials may be too bearish on wheat.

Matt Mattke