What are the primary forces driving milk prices? For dairy farmers like you, understanding those forces is critical to making informed decisions and staying competitive. While both technical and fundamental factors influence dairy market dynamics, this article will focus on the most essential reports and resources that every dairy producer should follow to stay ahead.

 

Report Name	Source	Release Information	Time	Where to Find?
Daily Spot Trade	CME	Monday - Friday	10:45-11:40 AM CT	https://www.cmegroup.com/trading/agricultural/spot-call-data.html
Global Dairy Trade Auction	Global Dairy Trade	First and Third Tuesday	Mid-Morning	https://www.globaldairytrade.info/en/product-results/
Dairy Exports	Foreign Agricultural Services	First Week of Month	Mid-Morning	https://apps.fas.usda.gov/gats/default.aspx
Milk Production	USDA	Late Month	2:00 PM CT	https://usda.library.cornell.edu/concern/publications/h989r321c?locale=en
Dairy Products Production	USDA	Early in Month	2:00 PM CT	https://usda.library.cornell.edu/concern/publications/m326m1757
Cold Storage	USDA	Late Month	2:00 PM CT	https://usda.library.cornell.edu/concern/publications/pg15bd892?locale=en

 

Spot Trade on the CME: The Daily Indicator

 

The Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) hosts the daily spot trade Monday through Friday for key products, including dry whey, cheese, butter, and nonfat dry milk (NDM). Even on those occasions when the spot trade volume might be considered light, the daily spot trade remains the main daily source of information for producers, processors, and traders. Ignoring the other major fundamental news, the 10-minute spot trade offers a daily representation of fair value for the underlying products created by Class III and Class IV milk. The 10-minute trading windows set the tone for the day’s market activity and offer a window into long-term price trends.

 

Here’s the typical schedule:

 

• Dry Whey: 10:45-10:55 AM CT
• Cheese: 11:00-11:10 AM CT
• Butter: 11:15-11:25 AM CT
• Nonfat Dry Milk: 11:30-11:40 AM CT

 

The number of loads traded during these windows provides insights into the balance of supply and demand. For example:

 

• If prices stabilize after a few days of declines and volumes rise, it suggests a fair market balance or buyers re-entering the market.
• If prices spike and volume remains low, it may indicate that prices are too high for sustained trading and traders are stepping to the sidelines.

 

Class III milk futures, which are most influenced by cheese and whey, follow these trends closely. Meanwhile, Class IV markets, driven by butter and nonfat dry milk, may fluctuate based on changing market sentiments.

 

 

 

Global Dairy Trade Auctions: A Global Price Indicator

Held twice a month on the first and third Tuesday, the Global Dairy Trade (GDT) Auction offers valuable global market insights for cheddar, butter, skim milk powder, and other products. Since its inception in 2008, it has served as a hub for large-scale dairy product transactions with participants from over 70 countries. While the overall GDT index reflects global dairy price trends, U.S. dairy producers should focus on comparing U.S. spot prices against the auction results.

A significant price discrepancy between U.S. prices and the GDT can provide hints about export demand. For example, early 2025 saw higher GDT cheese and butter prices compared to U.S. spot prices, signaling strong global demand for these products. Exports on those products have been solid. The inverse is often seen if U.S. prices push to a premium relative to global prices.

 

 

 

Dairy Export Data: Key to Understanding Global Demand

 

The USDA Dairy Exports Report is released monthly and reflects export trends for key dairy products like cheese, whey, butter, and nonfat dry milk/skim milk powder. The report, with a two-month lag, provides crucial data for understanding U.S. dairy’s global position.

 

• Cheese exports have reached record highs, with March 2024 seeing over 50,000 metric tons exported.
• Nonfat dry milk/skim milk powder tops the list of U.S. dairy exports in both volume and export percentage. Unfortunately, recent weakness in the global price for it has dampened prices for the broader market.

Staying updated on these trends helps producers gauge global demand and anticipate market shifts, particularly in export-sensitive products.

 

 

Milk Production: The Most Critical Indicator

 

Released monthly, the Milk Production Report offers essential data on cow numbers, milk production per cow, and overall production for major U.S. dairy states. This is the most immediate and impactful report for any dairy producer to watch.

 

• Trends in cow numbers and production per cow can significantly affect supply.
• Weather, feed availability, and disease outbreaks (e.g., Avian Flu) often influence production levels.

 

The report provides year-over-year comparisons, helping farmers track production patterns and adjust accordingly.

 

 

 

Dairy Products Production & Cold Storage: Understanding Supply Trends

 

 

Two additional reports offer insights into production and supply:

 

• Dairy Products Production Report: Released early each month, this report details production levels for cheese, butter, NDM, whey products, and frozen items. Recent increases in cheese production have been matched with solid demand, and that trend leaves the market susceptible to volatile price action if demand wanes.
• Cold Storage Report: This monthly report tracks the supply of dairy products in public and private refrigerated warehouses. For dairy producers, cheese and butter stocks are of most concern:
  • Tight cheese stocks indicate strong demand, providing a bullish market outlook.
  • Higher butter inventories suggest that supply is outpacing demand, which can put downward pressure on prices.

 

Putting It All Together: Navigating Dairy Market Trends

 

Together, these reports provide a comprehensive view of the dairy market’s supply and demand landscape. However, keeping up with them can be time-consuming, and interpreting the data requires a focused approach. That’s where Total Farm Marketing can help.

 

It can be challenging to stay on top of market trends and make informed decisions amid the constant flow of data. Our team is dedicated to providing the tools, insights, and support you need to navigate these complexities, allowing you to make confident decisions about your operation. We focus on the details of the market, so you can focus on what you do best and love most – running a thriving dairy operation.

 

Let us take care of the market analysis, while you focus on driving your farm’s success. Contact us today to learn how we can help simplify your decision-making process and support your long-term goals.

 

 

This year, Total Farm Marketing is celebrating our 40th year helping farmers.

Give us a call at 800.334.9779 to discuss your situation and how we can help you achieve marketing success.

 

 

©May 2025. Total Farm Marketing. Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. No representation is being made that scenario planning, strategy or discipline will guarantee success or profits. Examples of seasonal price moves or extreme market conditions are not meant to imply that such moves or conditions are common occurrences or likely to occur. Futures prices may have already factored in the seasonal aspects of supply and demand. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing. Total Farm Marketing refers to Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., Stewart-Peterson Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency and an equal opportunity provider. A customer may have relationships with any of the three companies.