CORN HIGHLIGHTS:

• The corn market finished with mixed trade as stability returned to old crop futures with a strong demand tone, while deferred contracts remained under pressure due to favorable weather supporting a solid planting pace for this year’s crop.
• The USDA released the latest crop progress report on Monday afternoon. As of May 4, the USDA estimated that 40% of this year’s corn crop was planted, up 16% over last week. This was 1% below expectations, but 1% ahead of 5-year average.  Key corn producing state, Illinois, was the biggest laggard on the totals with 32% of the crop plants, down 12% from the 5-year average.
• Weather models remain friendly for possible rapid planting pace. Temperatures across most of the corn belt are expected to be above normal and drier than normal precipitation. The prospects of strong planting pace limited new crop corn futures.
• Strong demand tone will support old crop corn futures as export demand and ethanol demand are trending above USDA market year projections. The recent weakness in prices will likely limit cash marketing, and basis levels will likely firm to promote additional cash sales.
• Weather conditions for the Brazil corn crop have been overall very friendly, and some analyst groups have raised their production forecasts for the key second crop corn. With harvest a few weeks away, the fresh supplies will be in competition with U.S. corn bushels on the export market.

SOYBEAN HIGHLIGHTS:

• Soybeans closed lower for the second consecutive day following the crop progress report that showed planting pace well above the 5-year average amid generally good weather that has been conducive to planting. Soybean meal was lower to end the day along with soybean oil despite a rally in crude oil.
• Yesterday’s Crop Progress report saw that the soybean crop is 30% planted, which compares to 18% last week and the 5-year average of 23%. The pace was slightly below the average trade guess of 31%. 7% of the crop has emerged which compares to the average of 5%. Planting is ahead of the average pace in every state except for Illinois where it is 1 point behind the average.
• In Brazil, the Mato Grosso Institute for Agricultural Economics (IMEA) has projected that state’s soybean production at 50.89 mmt. If realized, this would be a 30% jump over 2024 production. This is said to be due to higher estimated acreage and yields. Over the past few years, Mato Grosso has produced nearly one-third of Brazil’s soybeans.
• Both old and new crop soybean futures have technical support around their respective 40 and 50 day moving averages. However, if they break this support, momentum would point to more downside and a potential re-test of the April lows.

WHEAT HIGHLIGHTS:

• Wheat put some green on the board today, with a higher close in all three classes. Support came from a drop in the U.S. Dollar, a higher close for Matif wheat futures, and a technical bounce as U.S. wheat remains oversold and funds are record short.
• Yesterday’s crop progress report from the USDA indicated that winter wheat conditions improved 2% from last week, to 51% good to excellent; 39% of the crops are headed compared to 41% last year and 33% average. Additionally, 44% of the spring wheat crop is planted, versus 45% a year ago and 34% average. An estimated 13% of spring wheat has emerged, which is ahead of the 11% pace last year and 9% on average.
• East-central China is seeing heat and dryness that could affect their wheat production. Additionally, freezing temperatures could impact winter wheat in northeast Europe and the Baltics. However, these weather issues may be somewhat counterbalanced by better rains expected for parts of Ukraine and Kazakhstan.
• IKAR has increased their estimate of 2025 Russian wheat production from 82.5 mmt to 83.8 mmt. In addition, they also increased their Russian wheat export forecast from 40 mmt to 41.3 mmt.

DAIRY HIGHLIGHTS:

• The headline on Tuesday was the results of this morning’s Global Dairy Trade auction. The overall GDT price index jumped 4.60% on strong bidding.
• GDT cheese surged 12% higher to $2.50/lb while GDT butter added 3.80% to $3.62/lb. These are both 12-month highs for each product.
• Increased demand for the global market kept optimism in the US trade. Each spot dairy product was bid higher Tuesday.
• Class III futures are making a push for $19.00/cwt. All 2025 months were bid double digits higher.
• The Class IV market even found some buyers, with September adding 43c and August up 27c.

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Author

Amanda Brill