TFM Midday Update 5-7-2025

CORN

This morning’s trade announcement that U.S.-China negotiations will resume later this week continues to lift deferred corn contracts at midday, although nearby contracts have edged lower.
The latest forecast shows a clear planting window across much of the Midwest over the next seven days, with only limited rainfall expected in parts of Kansas and the Southeast.
A key export window for U.S. corn will likely remain open for at least another 45 days, as Ukrainian corn prices continue to trade well above those of U.S. offerings.
Ethanol production has slumped to 300 million gallons, down from 306 million the previous week; however. this is still up 5.7% YOY. There were 102 mb of corn used in this production process (or 14.55 mb per day). This is below the 15.06 mb needed to reach the USDA’s forecast of 5.50 bb.

Soybeans continue to show strength in midday trade, supported by overnight reports that the U.S. Treasury Secretary and U.S. Trade Representative will meet with a Chinese delegation later this week to begin trade negotiations. Soybeans and soybean meal are posting higher at midday, while soybean oil is trading mixed.
Soybean prices in Brazil and Argentina are now well below U.S. levels, contributing to a slowdown in U.S. export activity.
Brazil’s soybean harvest is expected to reach a record of 169 mmt or 6.21 bb, according to a report from consultant Michael Cordonnier. He also added that even though Argentina’s bean harvest has been delayed, yields are better than expected.
Brazilian farmers are expected to expand the soybean planted area by approximately 500,000 hectares in the 2025/26 season, which begins in September for key growing regions.

Wheat futures have turned mixed at midday, showing little reaction to the China trade news, as favorable weather conditions continue to erase the previously built-in weather premium.
Showers are moving across western Kansas this morning, with additional rainfall expected across the state over the next week. Meanwhile, Texas and Oklahoma are forecast to remain dry, allowing fields in those areas to finally dry out.
Crop stress remains a concern for wheat in China, as drought conditions persist across one-third of the country’s wheat-growing regions.
U.S. wheat continues to gain competitiveness in the global market, with Gulf hard red winter wheat now priced at a 25-cent discount compared to Russian wheat.

Lauren VandenLangenberg