CORN HIGHLIGHTS:

• Corn futures ended the day with marginal losses, despite supportive export demand news and some late-session short covering. July corn has now closed lower in five of the past six sessions. For the week, the July contract is down 21 ½ cents heading into Friday’s trade.
• Managed funds continue to liquidate their long position, pressuring the corn market. The last commitment of traders was estimated funds were long 71,000 contracts of corn. As planting weather has been favorable, and possible bearish projections for the 2025-26 marketing year, funds have continued to liquidate those long positions, pressuring the corn market, especially the July futures.
• USDA announced weekly export sales for corn on Thursday morning. For the week ending May 1, USDA reported new sales of 1.663 MMT (65.5 mb) for the week. This was up 67% over last week and 47% above the 4-week average. Japan was the top buyer of U.S. corn again last week. Total export sales are trending ahead of the pace to reach USDA targets for the marketing year and up 27% over last year.
• USDA announced two flash exports sales of corn on Thursday morning. Mexico purchased 205,000 MT (8.1 mb) of corn split between the current and next marketing year. Of that total, 40,000 MT was for 2024-25 and 165,000 MT was for 2025-26. In addition, unknown destinations purchased 115,000MT (4.5 mb) of corn for the 2024-25 marketing year.
• On Monday, USDA will release the next WASDE report. The market will be watching closely for any demand adjustment that could reduce old crop carryout below 1.400 bb. The May report will also give the first projections for the 2025-26 crop year. The combination of extra corn acres and trendline yield could place new crop carryout over the 2.000 bb mark. That total would be a bearish starting point and has pressured the market.

SOYBEAN HIGHLIGHTS:

• Soybeans ended the day higher while corn and wheat were lower thanks to a strong showing in soybean oil. Crude oil rallied by over 3% which supported soybean oil and therefore soybeans despite slightly lower soybean meal. Export sales were in the middle of the road, but there was a flash sale reported as well.
• Today’s export sales were a bit disappointing for soybeans with the USDA reporting an increase of 13.8 mb for 24/25 and an increase of 0.4 mb for 25/26. This was down 12% from the previous week but up 11% from the prior 4-week average. Primary destinations were to Mexico, unknown destinations, and Japan. Last week’s export shipments of 9.5 mb were below the 11.2 mb needed each week to meet the USDA’s estimates.
• A bright spot for soybean exports today was the announcement of a sale of 225,000 tons of soybeans that were sold to Pakistan for 25/26. This was the largest daily sale to Pakistan since June 2022 and confirms their earlier commitment to buy more cotton and soybeans from the U.S.
• The demand in the soybean oil market has been providing support to soybean prices.  Weekly soybean oil export sales were strong at 14.6 MT, near the top end of expectations, and new crop sales of 1.1 MT topped expectations. Current total sales for soybean oil in the 2024-25 marketing year total 990.6 MT, up nearly 800% over last year.

WHEAT HIGHLIGHTS:

• The wheat market continued its downward trend, closing lower across all three futures classes. Kansas City wheat futures set new contract lows before a slight rebound. The U.S. Dollar Index surged today and is on track to close above its 21-day moving average for the first time since April 1. This put additional pressure on the U.S. wheat complex, compounded by a lower close for Paris milling wheat futures.
• The USDA reported an increase of 2.6 mb of wheat export sales for 24/25 and an increase of 18.1 mb for 25/26. Shipments last week totaled 18.1 mb, which was under the 23.4 mb pace needed per week to reach their export goal of 820 mb for 24/25. Total 24/25 wheat shipments have reached 700 mb, which is up 12% from last year.
• Today’s big news was that the U.S. and the UK have reached a trade deal. Grain markets largely shrugged this off, however, as it appears to have a more prominent impact on U.S. beef and ethanol exports to the UK. Nevertheless, this could be the first step towards trade deals with other countries, which in theory should be bullish for ag markets.
• According to Statistics Canada, their nation’s all wheat stocks were estimated at 15.421 mmt as of March 31. This exceeded expectations of 14.9 mmt but was below the 15.601 mmt figure from a year ago. Furthermore, LSEG is estimating 25/26 Canadian wheat production at 36.5 mmt, which would be 4.5% above last season’s harvest.
• The USDA has estimated that approximately 22% of winter wheat acres are experiencing drought conditions as of May 6; this is down 1% from the week prior. Spring wheat areas in drought were held steady at 37%. At the same time a year ago an estimated 28% of winter wheat was in drought, while spring wheat was at just 15%.

DAIRY HIGHLIGHTS:

• After closing higher eight trading days in a row, June Class III futures fell back 27 cents to $18.75.
• Block were higher while barrels declined today, but overall spot cheese was slightly higher to hold above $1.80/lb. Blocks are now at a $5.75 cent premium.
• Class IV futures were mostly higher with the second month contract tacking on 18 cents from Wednesday’s close.
• This came despite a quiet spot trade in which butter was even and powder fell just a quarter cent.

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Author

John Heinberg