CORN HIGHLIGHTS:

• The corn market finished mixed on the session despite a “on-the-surface” supportive USDA WASDE report and easing U.S.-China trade tensions. Fund selling, rapid U.S. planting progress, and larger global supplies weighed on market sentiment.
• In the May WASDE, USDA raised old crop corn export demand by 50 million bushels, lowering 2024/25 ending stocks to 1.415 billion bushels—below market expectations. However, a 4 MMT increase in Brazil’s crop estimate to 131 MMT added bearish pressure, reinforcing concerns about global competition.
• USDA also released its first projections for the 2025/26 marketing year. Using March planting intentions (95.7 million acres) and a trendline yield of 181 bu/acre, USDA forecast ending stocks at 1.800 billion bushels—200 mb below pre-report expectations. A notable 150 mb increase in feed demand was included in the new crop outlook. This tighter balance sheet raises the stakes for favorable U.S. weather during the growing season.
• Weekly corn export inspections totaled 1.224 MMT for the week ending May 8, in line with expectations. Year-to-date export inspections are now 29% higher than the same period last year.
• May corn futures expire on Wednesday, May 14, and could continue to influence the old crop side of the corn market with short-term price movement. Money Managers net sold 57,436 contracts between April 29 – May 6, bringing their total position to a net long 13,893 contracts.

SOYBEAN HIGHLIGHTS:

• Soybeans ended the day sharply higher following multiple bullish headlines today. This morning, it was announced that President Trump and China’s President Xi made an agreement to lower tariffs over the next 90 days. This was followed by a friendly WASDE report and higher crude oil that supported soybean oil, and bean meal was higher as well.
• Markets jumped early following news that President Trump and Chinese President Xi reached a 90-day tariff truce, rolling back U.S. soybean tariffs to 30% from 145%, with China cutting its tariffs on U.S. goods to 10% from 125%. The announcement sparked rallies in soybeans, hogs, and equities.
• The USDA’s WASDE report added fuel to the rally, as it lowered 2024/25 soybean ending stocks to 350 million bushels from 375 million last month, and projected 2025/26 carryout at just 295 million bushels—well below trade expectations of 362 million. South American production estimates were unchanged, with Argentina at 50.0 MMT and Brazil at 169.0 MMT.
• Today’s Export Inspections report saw soybean inspections total 15.7 mb for the week ending May 8, and total inspections are now at 1.613 bb, up 11% from the previous year.
• Friday’s CFTC report saw funds as sellers of soybeans by 16,332 contracts, which left them with a net long position of 21,870 contracts. They sold 6,649 contracts of bean oil, leaving them long 56,738 contracts and sold 5,230 contracts of meal leaving them short 103,457 contracts.

WHEAT HIGHLIGHTS:

• The wheat complex closed lower across all three classes, with Minneapolis futures leading the decline amid forecasts for rainfall in the U.S. Northern Plains later this week.
• Pressure also came from a bearish tone in the USDA’s WASDE report, which offset optimism from recent U.S.-China trade talks. The wheat market instead focused on a surging U.S. Dollar Index, which reached a one-month high.
• USDA pegged 2025/26 U.S. all-wheat production at 1.921 billion bushels, down from 1.971 bb in 2024/25 but above the average trade estimate of 1.896 bb. Winter wheat was estimated at 1.349 bb, unchanged from the prior year.
• 2024/25 U.S. wheat ending stocks came in at 841 million bushels, down 5 mb from April, while 2025/26 ending stocks jumped to 923 mb—well above expectations and the high end of pre-report guesses.
• Global 2024/25 wheat carryout was raised to 265.2 million metric tons (mmt) from 260.7 mmt in April. The initial 2025/26 world ending stocks estimate was 265.7 mmt, also above expectations.
• Weekly wheat export inspections totaled 14.9 mb, bringing cumulative 2024/25 inspections to 745 mb—15% above last year but still slightly behind the pace needed to meet USDA’s unchanged export forecast of 820 mb.
• China has reportedly purchased between 400,000 to 500,000 mt of milling-quality wheat, sourced from Canada and Australia in the past few weeks. Despite being the world’s top wheat producer, China still needs to import wheat to meet demand. And with current heat and dryness in their wheat belt, their imports could increase. For reference, in 2024 China purchased $3.5 billion worth of wheat, totaling 11 mmt.

DAIRY HIGHLIGHTS:

• The US and China agreed to a 90-day tariff relief plan in which US tariffs would fall from 145% to 30%, and China’s tariffs on US good from 125% to 10%.
• June, July, and August Class III futures closed with double digit gains for the day, despite a lower cheese traded.
• Class IV futures through November held small gains through the close with the second month contract a $17.72.
• Spot butter was 2 cents higher on one load traded to move to $2.35/lb. Powder was up a quarter cent on 12 loads traded.

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Author

Brandon Doherty