CORN HIGHLIGHTS:

• Corn futures ended the week lower, falling for a third straight session and shedding 15¼ cents overall. A softer demand tone, large expectations for Brazil corn crop, and trade concerns between the U.S. and China pressured the market.
• President Trump reignited trade concerns Thursday with comments accusing China of violating a recent agreement, suggesting potential sanctions, though no details were provided. The uncertainty pressured markets late in the session.
• USDA released weekly corn export sales on Thursday morning. For the week ending May 22, USDA reported new sales of 916,000 MT (36.1 mb). This was within, but towards the low end of expectations and down 23% from last week. Japan was the top buyer of U.S. corn last week. Corn sales commitments now total 2.527 BB for the 2024-25 marketing year and are up 28% from last year. The USDA export target for the marketing year is 2.600 BB.
• USDA also confirmed a flash sale of 210,560 MT (8.3 mb) of corn to unknown destinations — the third consecutive daily export announcement.
• The total corn production out of Brazil is larger than expected and could be pushing 140 MMT. The USDA forecast is for 130 MMT. Safras, a Brazilian Agriculture Analyst firm, raised their forecast 139 MMT today, with a nearly 4MMT bump in the second crop corn due to strong yield and favorable weather in the growing season.

SOYBEAN HIGHLIGHTS:

• Soybeans ended the day lower at the bottom of their recent trading range with the July contract closing below all major moving averages for the first time since the beginning of April. Beneficial weather has pressured grains, but today, a sharp decline in soybean oil brought the soy complex lower. Soybean oil closed over 3% lower while meal was unchanged to lower.
• Today’s export sales were on the poor side for soybeans with the USDA reporting an increase of 5.4 million bushels of sales in 24/25 and an increase of 1.2 mb for 25/26. Primary destinations were to Mexico, Indonesia, and Japan. Last week’s export shipments of 7.7 mb were below the 13.0 mb needed each week to meet the USDA’s estimates.
• In South America, estimates for Brazilian soybean production are beginning to rise with the highest estimates near 182.5 mmt, which would be significantly higher than the USDA’s most recent estimate of 169 mmt. In addition, Brazilian soybean exports for May are expected to be higher than expected at 15.0 mmt.
• For the week, July soybeans lost 18-1/2 cents while November soybeans posted larger losses at 23 cents. July soybean meal was nearly unchanged at 0.1 higher to $296.30. July soybean oil lost 2.46 cents at 46.89 cents.

WHEAT HIGHLIGHTS:

• Wheat futures ended mixed Friday: Chicago slipped slightly, Kansas City posted small gains, and Minneapolis led again, though the July contract stalled at its 200-day moving average (626 ¾). Delayed harvests and 2–4 inches of forecasted rain in the Southern Plains helped support HRW prices. Technically, all three classes are forming the right shoulder of an inverted head-and-shoulders pattern — a potential bullish signal.
• The USDA reported a decrease of 4.7 mb of wheat export sales for 24/25, but an increase of 26.1 mb for 25/26. Shipments last week at 18.4 mb fell under the 34.5 mb pace needed per week to reach their 24/25 export goal of 820 mb. Total 24/25 wheat shipments have reached 748 mb, up 13% from last year.
• SovEcon recently increased their estimate of Russian wheat exports by 1.1 mmt to 40.8 mmt. However, the Russian deputy ag minister is projecting their 2025 wheat exports much higher, at 44.5 mmt. The minister is also estimating their total 2025 grain exports at 53 mmt.
• Dry conditions persist in key Chinese wheat regions, prompting efforts to induce rainfall via cloud seeding using drones and artillery. Reports suggest rainfall could increase 4% over 8,000 sq km.
• According to the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange, dry weather in western and northern Argentina has allowed wheat planting to get off to a good start. The exchange is expecting a total planted area of 6.7 million hectares, with 10.5% of it now complete. Planting in eastern growing regions, however, may see delays due to recent heavy rainfall, which has also hindered corn and soybean harvest.

DAIRY HIGHLIGHTS:

• The last trading day in May saw minor, two-sided trading in the Class III markets with June futures at $19.17 and July at $19.54.
• Spot cheese was unchanged today, finishing the week at $1.90875/lb and up 4.75 cents from last week. Spot whey added 3 cents on the week, pushing to $0.5725/lb.
• Nearby Class IV futures all held small gains today, with June sitting at $18.41 and July holding a decent premium at $19.03.
• Butter gained 5.50 cents from last Friday to close at $2.4750/lb. Powder was 3.50 cents to the good, closing the week out at $1.2875/lb.

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Author

John Heinberg