CORN HIGHLIGHTS:

• Corn futures ended lower Monday as favorable weather remains the dominant market driver. Despite solid demand and a weaker U.S. dollar, July corn closed at its lowest level since October 22, fading from early session highs.
• USDA export inspections for the week ending May 29 came in at 1.576 MMT (62 mb), topping expectations and up 29% from a year ago, reinforcing strong demand.
• Weather forecasts continue to pressure prices, with cool temperatures and widespread rains expected across much of the Corn Belt over the next two weeks. As a result, the market holds little weather premium, keeping sellers in control.
• Monday afternoon’s Crop Progress report will be closely watched. While planting progress in wetter areas remains in focus, traders may shift their attention to condition ratings. Last week’s 68% good-to-excellent rating was a surprise miss, but improved weather could support crop development going forward.

SOYBEAN HIGHLIGHTS:

• Soybeans were lower to end the day with pressure coming from concerns about a trade deal being negotiated between President Trump and China’s Xi. Pressure also came from lower closes in both soybean meal and oil despite gains in crude oil.
• With Chinese trade concerns mounting, President Trump and Xi are set to speak this week to work out disagreements had at last month’s meeting in Geneva. South America has been the primary supplier of soybeans to China, but the export window for the US will be coming up this fall, and having a trade agreement in place will be crucial.
• Friday’s CFTC report saw funds as buyers of soybeans by 24,043 contracts which left them with a net long position of 36,697 contracts. They sold 3,321 contracts of bean oil leaving them long 53,988 contracts and bought back 13,681 contracts of meal which left them near record short at 93,785 contracts.
• Ahead of the USDA’s upcoming report, analysts expect April soybean crush to total 202 million bushels, up 13.8% from 177.6 mb last year. Corn used for ethanol is also projected to be higher year-over-year.

WHEAT HIGHLIGHTS:

• Wheat futures closed higher across all three U.S. exchanges Monday, supported by a combination of adverse global weather, a weaker U.S. dollar, and renewed geopolitical risk. Dryness in key wheat-growing regions — including China, southern Russia, Canada, and northern Europe — continues to underpin prices. In the U.S., excessive rains are raising concerns over potential harvest delays and crop quality issues in the Southern Plains.
• Weekly wheat inspections reached 20.3 mb, bringing total 24/25 inspections to 802 mb, up 16% from last year. The USDA is estimating 24/25 wheat exports at 820 mb, up 17% from the year prior.
• Geopolitical tensions flared again over the weekend, with Ukraine launching drone strikes deep inside Russian territory. Reports suggest four military bases and over 40 Russian bombers were damaged, reintroducing a war premium into the market and casting doubt on the progress of upcoming peace talks.
• The Australian agriculture ministry is estimating their nation’s 2025 wheat harvest will total 30.6 mmt. If that prediction is accurate, it will be a 10% decline from last year. For reference, the USDA is estimating Australian wheat production at 31 mmt.
• Russian wheat export prices held steady at $225/MT, according to IKAR, which also forecast June exports at 1.2 MMT — down from 2.1 MMT in May. Meanwhile, Russia’s agriculture ministry slashed its wheat export tax by 25% to 1,023 rubles per metric ton.

DAIRY HIGHLIGHTS:

• May and June Class III futures held small losses today while the July through October contracts closed with gains.
• Spot cheese was 0.3750 cents higher today to move to $1.9125/lb. Whey started the week off being three quarters of a cent lower at $0.5650/lb.
• The Class IV futures in the second half of the year closed with gains today, bringing the
  July to December average to $19.90.
• Spot butter was 3.50 cents higher today on 26 loads traded! Spot powder was unchanged from Friday.

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Author

Amanda Brill