TFM Morning Update 06-05-2025

CORN

Corn is trading higher again this morning following yesterday’s strength and is on track for a third consecutively higher close after nearing contract lows earlier this week.
Near-term forecasts remain wet across much of the Corn Belt, but the 8-14 day and extended outlooks into late June are trending hotter and drier than normal, raising concerns for crop development.
Estimates for today’s export sales report see corn sales in a range between 800k and 1,600k tons with an average guess of 1,156k tons. This would compare to 948k last week and 1,294k a year ago at this time.

Soybeans are trading lower this morning following yesterday’s gains that saw the July contract close just above the 50-day moving average but has now slipped below it. Both meal and bean oil are lower and pressuring soybeans.
Soybean oil stocks as of May 1 were reported 18% below last year’s levels. This drawdown comes despite sluggish biofuel demand so far in 2025, as political uncertainty continues to cloud the sector’s outlook.
Estimates for today’s export sales report see soybean sales in a range between 100k and 600k tons with an average guess of 278k tons. This would compare to 179k last week and 263k a year ago at this time.

All three wheat classes are trading higher to start the day and may see continued support as a result of dry global weather and improved demand.
In China, the drought happening in the wheat belt is expected to cause a decrease in wheat production. Areas in the Henan providence have received as little as 30mm over the past three months and yield will likely be impacted.
Estimates for today’s export sales report see wheat sales in a range between 100k and 800k tons with an average guess of 531k tons. This would compare to 583k last week and 388k a year ago at this time.

Amanda Brill