TFM Morning Update 06-06-2025

CORN

Corn is trading lower to start the day following yesterday’s gains in the deferred contracts. In counter seasonal fashion, the July contract has been losing value against new crop contracts.
The Buenos Aires Grain exchange has released a crop progress report showing that the corn harvest has advanced to 43.8% from 40.5% last week with rains slowing progress. Estimated production was unchanged at 49.0 mmt.
Yesterday’s export sales report came in below the average estimate for corn at 1,102k tons but was up from last week’s 948k tons. Primary destinations were to Mexico, Japan, and South Korea.

Soybeans are trading lower to start the day following three consecutive days of gains which brought prices back above the 100-day moving average. A close firmly above the 100-day would be technically bullish. Soybean meal is lower while bean oil is trading higher.
In Argentina, the yields for soybeans are now being forecast above previous estimates as wet soil slows harvest efforts. The crop is now 80.7% harvested compared to 80.7% last week, and production estimates are unchanged so far at 50.0 mmt.
Yesterday’s export sales were below the average trade guesses for soybeans at 198k tons which compared to 179k tons last week. Primary destinations were to Bangladesh, Norway, and Taiwan.

All three wheat classes are trading lower this morning after two consecutive days of gains but are now nearly 40 cents off last month’s low in the July contract.
In China, the drought happening in the wheat belt is expected to cause a decrease in wheat production. Areas in the Henan providence have received as little as 30mm over the past three months and yield will likely be impacted.
Yesterday’s export sales were below the average trade estimates at 396k tons and compared to the previous week’s 583k tons. Top buyers were Nigeria, unknown destinations, and Mexico.

Amanda Brill