TFM Morning Update 06-11-2025

CORN

Dalian corn futures ticked slightly higher, with U.S. markets continuing a short-covering rally ahead of Thursday’s USDA report. In contrast, MATIF August corn futures fell to new contract lows.
Trade estimates U.S. 2024/25 corn carryout at 1.392 billion bushels and 2025/26 at 1.792 billion bushels, though one group sees 2025/26 carryout rising to 2.03 billion on weaker export expectations. World 2025/26 corn ending stocks are projected at 278.8 mmt, slightly above May’s 277.8.
Vietnam signed a deal to import U.S. corn over South American alternatives. Meanwhile, Ukraine’s corn exports have reached 18 mmt, 82% of USDA’s target, amid tightening supplies. Taiwan sourced corn from Brazil, which remains the primary supplier for most global buyers. EU corn imports are up 7% year-over-year, while exports are down 41%.

Dalian soybean and soymeal futures moved higher, while soyoil and palm oil futures declined. In Europe, MATIF rapeseed futures tested key resistance levels before retreating.
Ongoing uncertainty around the EPA’s biofuel policy clouds the outlook. Trade estimates peg the 2024/25 U.S. soybean carryout at 351 million bushels and 2025/26 at 298 million, though one group sees weaker exports pushing 2025/26 carryout closer to 500 million.
World 2025/26 soybean ending stocks are estimated at 124.5 mmt, slightly above May’s 124.3. One firm expects U.S. 2024/25 soyoil carryout to fall to 1090 million lbs (vs. USDA’s 1451) due to lower production and stronger exports.

Showers are expected in China and southern Russia, but Saskatchewan may miss beneficial rainfall. In the U.S. Southern Plains, drier weather should aid the wheat harvest.
Russian wheat crop estimates have been raised to 84 mmt, and the EU’s crop could reach 138 mmt. However, EU wheat exports are down 32% year-over-year, while Australian wheat futures are trading near a 7-month low.
The U.S. wheat crop is estimated at 1.924 billion bushels, nearly unchanged from May. U.S. 2024/25 wheat carryout is projected at 842 million bushels, rising to 924 million in 2025/26.

Matt Mattke