TFM Morning Update 06-16-2025

CORN

Corn is trading lower this morning taking back a portion of Friday’s gains that were caused by escalated global tensions. Weather has not been dry enough yet to give corn prices the boost it has needed.
The past 6 to 10 days have seen above normal rainfall which caused a reduction in drought areas in the Corn Belt, but forecasts are beginning to turn dry, especially in the West. A hot and dry July and August are still in the forecast.
Friday’s CFTC report saw funds as sellers of corn by 9,977 contracts which increased their net short position to 164,020 contracts. This position is getting dangerously short if conditions turn dry and could turn into short covering.

Soybeans are trading higher this morning on continued momentum from Friday after biodiesel quotas for 2026 and ’27 came in significantly higher than expected causing a limit up move in soybean oil. Soybean oil is sharply higher again today after gapping up while meal is lower.
May soybean crush is seen at 193.8 million bushels which would be 5.5% above May of last year and would be 1.9% higher than a month ago. Oil stocks are expected to be lower than a year ago.
Friday’s CFTC report saw funds buying 17,038 contracts of soybeans which increased their net long position to 25,639 contracts. They sold 7,222 contracts of bean oil as of June 10 and bought 9,909 contracts of meal.

Wheat is trading lower to start the week after rebounding sharply on Friday posting gains of over 17 cents in the July contract. Rising tensions between Iran and Israel were a large reason, and the fighting will likely continue for now.
Later today, the USDA will release its Crop Progress report, and expectations are that crop conditions may fall slightly following an increase in drought conditions in the West.
Friday’s CFTC report saw funds as buyers of Chicago wheat as of June 10 by 6,561 contracts which left them short 94,011 contracts. They bought 3,064 contracts of KC wheat which decreased their net short position to 74,964 contracts.

Amanda Brill