TFM Morning Update 06-18-2025

The CME and Total Farm Marketing Offices will be closed Thursday, June 19, in Observance of Juneteenth

CORN

Corn is trading slightly higher this morning but still remains near support levels at $4.30 in the July contract. Improving wheat prices have likely kept corn from sliding lower as a large crop is expected.
Estimates for the weekly EIA report see ethanol production coming in lower than last week at 1.106m barrels per day while stockpiles are expected to be higher at 23.957m bbl.
In Brazil, the second crop corn harvest is ongoing which is likely adding pressure to US prices. In the US, weather has been good but is expected to turn dry.

Soybeans are trading lower this morning and are at the top end of their recent range following the bullish soybean oil news. Crude oil has begun to rally with war escalating between Israel and Iran which could lend further support to soybeans.
Soybean meal is slightly higher while soybean oil is lower, and the two have had an inverse relationship recently as more soybean crush will create excess meal. There was a flash sale announced yesterday of 200k tons of meal to unknown destinations.
China released their import figures from May which showed that soybean imports increased by 26.2% year over year to 13.92m tons. Chinese exports of rare earth fell by 31.3% in May.

Wheat is trading higher again to start the day as a slow start to US harvest coupled with crop ratings that are well below those of a year ago provide support. 10% of winter wheat has been harvested compared to 25% at this time last year.
The export duty on Russian wheat exports have fallen by 13.3% to 566 rubles per ton from 652.5 the previous week. The new rate will be in effect until June 24 and should be supportive to Russian exports.
In Ukraine, a dry weather pattern is now forecast which could threaten wheat production. So far, production estimates are unchanged at 20.1 mmt, but this number could decrease.

Amanda Brill