TFM Daily Market Summary 06-17-2025

The CME and Total Farm Marketing Offices will be closed Thursday, June 19, in Observance of Juneteenth

 

CORN HIGHLIGHTS:

  • Corn was higher to end Tuesday’s session, lifted by the wheat market strengthening today. The July contract was the only loser, down 4 cents, to close at $4.3150.
  • Monday’s Crop Progress report confirmed U.S. corn planting is complete, with crop conditions improving 1 point to 72% good-to-excellent — matching last year’s rating.
  • Global corn supplies for 2025/26 are projected to rise on improved yields, though the overall balance remains tight due to lower beginning stocks and stronger demand.
  • Corn export inspections totaled 1.673 mmt, down from 1.728 mmt last week, but up from 1.380 mmt last year. Top destinations were Japan and Mexico.
  • AgRural reported that, as of June 12, Brazil’s corn harvest is 5.2% complete, up from 1.9% the week prior but down from 21% finished at this time last year.eek last year.

SOYBEAN HIGHLIGHTS:

  • Soybeans closed higher for the third consecutive day following a decline in crop ratings and drier weather in the extended forecast. Soybean oil ended its massive run today with a small loss, while soybean meal closed higher. The soy complex will go back to normal limits tomorrow.
  • Monday’s Crop Progress report showed soybean conditions down 2 points to 66% good-to-excellent — below both last week and the average trade estimate. Planting is 93% complete, with 84% emerged, slightly ahead of the 5-year average of 83%.
  • USDA reported a sale of 120,000 metric tons of soybean meal to unknown destinations for 2025/26. Export sales remain slow, as the U.S. is currently outside its prime soybean export window.
  • Yesterday’s export inspections report saw soybean inspections at 216k tons as of June 12, which compared to 559k the previous week and 341k tons a year ago at this time. Primary destinations were to Germany, Japan, and Mexico.

WHEAT HIGHLIGHTS:

  • Wheat futures closed with strong gains across all classes, despite a firmer U.S. dollar. Support came from higher Matif wheat, weaker U.S. crop ratings, and likely technical buying as momentum indicators, like stochastics and RSI, trend higher.
  • USDA’s Crop Progress report showed winter wheat 93% headed, with conditions slipping 2 points to 52% good-to-excellent. Harvest is 10% complete — well behind last year’s 25% and the 5-year average of 16%. Spring wheat is 89% emerged and 4% headed, with conditions improving 4 points to 57% good-to-excellent.
  • LSEG commodity research has estimated global 25/26 wheat production at 796.44 mmt, which compares with the 24/25 estimate of 798 mmt. Additionally, they are projecting world wheat ending stocks will decline 5.1% to 248.7 mmt.
  • Russian wheat export values are reported by IKAR to have declined last week, due to improving harvest estimates. Through July delivery, new crop Russian wheat ended last week at $222 per mt FOB, down $3 from the week before. However, SovEcon estimated new crop offers at $225 to $229 per mt, which would be steady to down $1 from the prior week.
  • Romania may harvest 12.2 MMT of wheat in 2025/26, according to Argus — the largest since 1997 — up from 10.2 MMT this season on higher yields and expanded acreage.

DAIRY HIGHLIGHTS:

  • Class III and IV milk futures had a pretty quiet session on Tuesday as the market is at a standstill awaiting milk production totals on Friday.
  • US cheese buyers are still inactive as the spot market has closed red five days in a row.
  • Spot cheese has struggled several times this year at the $1.90/lb level. It looks like once again there wasn’t enough demand to push through it. Cheese closed Tuesday at $1.7625/lb. 
  • Spot butter fell 1.50c to $2.5775/lb on 5 loads traded.
  • The Global Dairy Trade auction results were mixed. The Index fell for the third event in a row, but GDT cheese regained 5.10% to $2.26/lb.

 

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Author

Brandon Doherty

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