TFM Morning Update 06-20-2025

CORN

Corn is trading higher to start the day, but July futures remain at support near recent lows while new crop December is closer to the middle of its trading range near the 50-day moving average.
Estimates for today’s export sales report see corn sales in a range between 650k and 1,400k tons with an average guess of 963k. This would compare to 762k a week ago and 605k a year ago.
In Brazil, the second crop corn harvest is ongoing which is likely adding pressure to US prices. In the US, weather has been good but is expected to turn dry.

Soybeans are trading higher along with corn and are at the top of their recent trading range. Gains in soybean oil have set the stage for this rally as trade looks for increased biodiesel demand. Meal is lower today while bean oil is higher.
Chinese soybean imports from Brazil for the month of May increased by 37.5% year over year. They bought 12.11 mmt from Brazil which compared to 8.81 mmt last year, and they bought just 1.63m mmt from the US.
Estimates for today’s export sales report see soybean sales in a range between 150k and 500k tons with an average guess of 313k tons. This would compare to 120k last week and 582k a year ago.

All three wheat classes are lower this morning following extremely impressive gains on Wednesday that saw futures up more than 25 cents to close the day. Weather and fund short covering were the primary reasons for the move.
In Kansas there have been early reports that storms on Tuesday with winds of up to 100 mph caused significant damage to the wheat crop. In other wheat areas, conditions are too wet which could pose more problems.
Estimates for today’s export sales report see wheat sales in a range between 300k and 600k tons with an average guess of 425k tons. This would compare to 389k last week and 579k tons a year ago.

Amanda Brill