CORN HIGHLIGHTS:

• Selling pressure remained in the corn market on Tuesday, as futures posted new nearby lows. July and September contracts marked new contract lows for the second consecutive session. Broad-based commodity weakness and favorable weather forecasts continue to keep buyers on the sidelines, allowing sellers to maintain control.
• Monday afternoon’s USDA Crop Progress report showed corn conditions at 70% good-to-excellent, down 2 percentage points from last week and below trade expectations for steady ratings at 72%. This compares to 69% good-to-excellent at the same time last year.
• Analyst expectations for Brazil’s second corn crop continue to rise. Agroconsult raised its forecast to a record 123.3 MMT, up 10.4 MMT from last month and 20.2 MMT above last year’s crop, despite delays from late planting and weather-related harvest setbacks.
• Speculative hedge funds expanded their net short position by more than 20,000 contracts as of June 17, bringing the total to 184,788 contracts. Given recent price action, current estimates likely place the net short above 200,000 contracts.
• The USDA reported a flash sale to Mexico of 630,000 metric tons of new-crop corn on Tuesday. Of that total, 554,500 MT is for the 2025-26 marketing year, with the remaining 57,600 MT for 2026-27.

SOYBEAN HIGHLIGHTS:

• Soybeans closed lower for the third consecutive day with the July contract losing 21-1/4 cents and November losing 23-3/4 cents so far this week. Pressure has primarily come from declines in soybean oil as it follows crude oil sharply lower. Crude oil has lost nearly 13 dollars per barrel since yesterday’s high as Iran and Israel seem close to agreeing to a cease fire.
• Yesterday’s Crop Progress Report saw crop conditions for soybeans unchanged with the good to excellent rating still at 66%. 96% of the crop is planted, 90% is emerged, compared to 84% last week, and 8% is blooming.
• Geopolitical tensions remain elevated, as reports emerged that Iran launched six missiles toward U.S. bases in Qatar and Iraq in response to weekend U.S. airstrikes on Iranian nuclear facilities. However, the absence of direct attacks on energy infrastructure led to selling in both crude oil and soybean oil.
• Yesterday’s CFTC report saw funds as buyers of soybeans. They bought 33,526 contacts which increased their net long position to 59,165 contracts. They bought 21,375 contracts of bean oil and sold 20,273 contracts of meal.

WHEAT HIGHLIGHTS:

• Wheat led the grain complex to the downside today. Both of the winter wheat classes sustained double-digit losses. Spring wheat, though also closing lower, was able to come away with less damage. The declines came despite a weaker U.S. dollar and deteriorating crop conditions, suggesting that traders are prioritizing macroeconomic and geopolitical drivers. Crude oil’s continued slide through key moving average support added pressure across the commodity space.
• Yesterday afternoon’s Crop Progress report indicated that winter wheat conditions fell 3% from last week to 49% good to excellent. Additionally, 96% of the crop is headed and 19% of the crop has been harvested. This is well below the 38% harvested last year and the five-year average of 28%. Spring wheat conditions also slipped 3% to 54% good to excellent; 93% of that crop is emerged and 17% is headed.
• According to the Commitments of Traders report, managed funds bought over 31,000 wheat contracts across all three classes, reducing their net short to about 152,000 contracts. However, this data is through Tuesday, June 17, and it is likely they have re-established short positions over the past few sessions.
• Analyst group ASAP Agri has estimated Ukraine’s 2025 wheat production will fall 3% year over year to 21.74 mmt. Additionally, they forecasted the yield at 4.37 mt per hectare, which would be down 3.5%. Finally, they projected Ukrainian 25/26 wheat exports at 15 mmt.
• Brazil’s Emater/RS pegged 2025 wheat yields at 2.997 mt/ha, an 8% improvement over 2024. However, planted area is expected to decline by 10% to 1.198 million hectares. Total production is estimated at 3.591 MMT, down about 3% from last season.

DAIRY HIGHLIGHTS:

• Class III futures were pressured today by a poor spot trade for cheese. July futures were saw the largest loss of 30 cents to close at $16.96.
• Spot cheese fell for a ninth straight session, down 4.875 cents to $1.6050/lb. Whey improved slightly by 0.25 cents to close at $0.5725/lb.
• Class IV futures also faced some pressure today following the Class III market lower. The November contract lost 21 cents to close at $19.84.
• Spot butter added a penny today to go home at $2.5350/lb. Powder fell 1 cent to $1.26/lb.
• There was a recommendation today to cover 100% of Q1 2026 milk. Contact your preferred professional with any questions.

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Author

Amanda Brill