TFM Morning Update 06-26-2025

CORN

Corn futures are trading slightly higher to start the day which is a relief following four consecutive days of lower prices. Export demand has been good and there was a flash sale earlier this week of 630,000 mt of corn to Mexico.
In Brazil, Agroconsult raised its estimate for second crop corn production to a record 123.3 MMT—10.4 MMT above their May forecast. The safrinha crop is expected to account for roughly 80% of Brazil’s total corn output this season.
Estimates for today’s export sales report see corn sales in a range between 650k and 1,400k tons with an average guess of 966k. This would compare to 1,059k last week and 682k a year ago.

Soybeans are mixed to start the day with gains in the front months and losses in the new crop contracts. Yesterday’s move lower that was led by soybean meal brought soybeans below all its major moving averages and at the lowest prices since the beginning of April.
On Monday, the USDA will release its updated acreage report, and although a change in soybean acres from 83.5 ma is not expected, there is some wiggle room with trade estimates between 82 and 85 ma.
Estimates for today’s export sales report see soybean sales in a range between 200k and 600k tons with an average guess of 441k. This would compare to 615k last week and 385k a year ago.

All three wheat classes are trading slightly lower this morning as wheat remains the punching bag for bearish fund money. Wheat is oversold, at support, and funds will soon likely begin short covering their 100,000 contract plus short position.
In Russia, SovEcon raised its estimate for the 2025 wheat crop to 83m tons from an earlier forecast of 82.8m tons. Improved conditions in parts of central Russia helped yields.
Estimates for today’s export sales report see wheat sales between 300k and 600k tons with an average guess of 431k tons. This would compare to 427k last week and 667k tons a year ago.

Amanda Brill