CORN HIGHLIGHTS:

• While the selling pressure seemed to slow on Thursday, the corn market still placed new contract lows and finished lower for the fifth consecutive session. Continued weakness in the wheat market and lack of a weather threat keep buyers mostly on the sideline again.
• USDA released weekly corn export sales on Thursday morning. For the week ending June 19, US exporters posted new sales of 741,200 MT (29.2 mb) of corn for the 2024-25 marketing year and 305,500 MT (12.0 mb) for 2025-26. With today’s sales, this puts the total sold for the 2024-25 marketing year at 2.660 billion bushels. This is 99.4% of the USDA target of 2.675 BB with 10 weeks left in the marketing year.
• The mmarket may be starting to position for Monday USDA Planted Acres report. Expectations for corn acres as of June 1 to be 95.4 million acres, up 100,000 acres from the March projection of 95.3 million. The range of analyst estimates is wide from 93.8 – 96.8 million acres. The wide range adds to the potential volatility before Monday’s report.
• Extended forecasts remain supportive for crop development heading into July, with near-normal temperatures and above-normal precipitation expected — ideal conditions as fields approach pollination. For now, the market sees no major weather threats.
• The prospects of lower interest rates has pressured the US dollar. On Thursday, the US dollar index traded to its lowest level since February 2022 which should help support commodity prices.

SOYBEAN HIGHLIGHTS:

• Soybeans closed lower for the fifth consecutive day as selling pressure continues on good, wet weather through the Corn Belt and a general bearish tone from the funds. Soybean meal finished the day lower while soybean oil was higher along with crude oil.
• Today’s export sales report came in better than expected with an increase of 14.8 million bushels for 24/25 and 5.7 mb for 25/26. This was above last week’s sales and up from the prior 4-week average. Top destinations were to the Netherlands, Mexico, and Egypt.
• Last week’s export shipments of 9.8 mb were below the 13.4 mb needed each week to meet the USDA’s export estimate of 1.850 bb for 24/25. In more friendly news, the USDA reported a flash sale of 110,000 tons of US soybeans to Egypt for delivery in the 24/25 marketing year.
• On Monday, the USDA will release its updated acreage report, and although a change in soybean acres from 83.5 ma is not expected, there is some wiggle room with trade estimates between 82 and 85 ma.

WHEAT HIGHLIGHTS:

• Wheat sustained yet another round of losses during today’s session, shrugging off support from a sharply lower US Dollar Index. A combination of poor export sales, winter crop harvest pressure, and another lower close for Matif wheat all weighed on prices. On a positive note, wheat is nearing oversold territory on some technical indicators, which could mean that a bottom is near.
• The USDA reported an increase of 9.4 mb of wheat export sales for 25/26. Shipments last week totaled 9.4 mb, which falls under the 15.7 mb pace needed per week to reach their export goal of 825 mb. Total sales commitments for 25/26 are now at 242 mb, up 8% from last year.
• According to the USDA, as of June 24, an estimated 20% of US winter wheat acres are experiencing drought conditions, up 6% from a week ago. Spring wheat acres in drought also saw an uptick of 3% versus last week to 25%. For reference, only 5% of spring wheat was in drought at this time last year.
• IKAR reportedly increased their estimate of Russian wheat production by 700,000 mt to 84.5 mmt. For reference, both the USDA and SovEcon are projecting the Russian wheat harvest at 83 mmt; SovEcon also just raised their forecast by 200,000 mt.
• The International Grains Council has issued a new world wheat production forecast for the 25/26 season, raising their estimate by 2 mmt to 808 mmt. This is now more in line with the USDA’s estimate of 808.6 mmt.
• In a survey from Bloomberg, the average guess for Canadian all wheat planted area is expected at 27.7 million acres, with a range of 26.0 to 28.5. This would be up 200,000 acres from Stats Canada’s estimate in March, and up 900,000 from 2024.
• One private research firm is pegging Chinese 25/26 wheat production at 141.7 mmt, which is unchanged from their last update. However, this is despite drought in southern China. It is said that irrigation in these areas helped to keep wheat conditions satisfactory, while adequate moisture in northern areas will help offset any losses in the south.

DAIRY HIGHLIGHTS:

• The June 2025 through January 2026 Class III contracts closed higher today. Second month July was up 9 cents while October was the biggest gainer at 23 cents.
• Spot cheese was up a half cent on 18 total loads traded, entering Friday down 3.75 cents on the week. Spot whey was up a penny.
• Class IV futures were mixed today with the July and August contracts unchanged from Wednesday. 
• Spot butter was up another 1.75 cents today while powder was unchanged once again.

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Author

John Heinberg