CORN HIGHLIGHTS:

• Corn futures finished higher Friday for the first time in five sessions, closing the week with moderate to strong gains. A weaker U.S. dollar, short covering ahead of Monday’s USDA Acreage Report, and July first notice day helped lift the market. Despite Friday’s rebound, December corn still ended the week down 14 ¼ cents.
• Much of Friday’s strength was likely tied to pre-report positioning and short covering. The trade expects planted corn acres as of June 1 to total 95.35 million, slightly above the March estimate of 95.3 million. However, the wide range of analyst estimates (93.8 to 96.8 million) adds potential for volatility when the report is released.
• Argentina will be reinstalling their export taxes on July 1, increasing the costs of Argentina ag products. The taxes were originally dropped to promote demand and raise
• Weather forecasts remain favorable for crop development into early July, with near-normal temperatures and above-average rainfall expected. However, some models are now introducing hotter conditions for mid-July, which could impact pollination.
• New-crop corn sales have picked up recently. Last week saw 12 million bushels in export sales, while Mexico added 25 million bushels of new-crop purchases during the week.

SOYBEAN HIGHLIGHTS:

• Soybean futures ended higher Friday, snapping a five-day losing streak. Support came after the European weather model shifted overnight, projecting a hotter and drier July than previously expected. Additionally, short covering ahead of the weekend likely added to the strength. Soybean meal closed higher, while soybean oil remained under pressure.
• Soybean meal continues to face global headwinds, with increased crush capacity in both the U.S. and South America leading to abundant supplies. The August soybean meal contract has dropped $20 per ton over the past two weeks after breaking technical support, and this week marked the lowest price levels since 2016.
• Looking ahead to Monday, USDA will release its updated Acreage Report. While expectations are for soybean acreage to remain steady at 83.5 million acres, trade estimates range between 82.0 and 85.0 million, leaving room for a surprise.
• On Monday, the USDA will release its updated acreage report, and although a change in soybean acres from 83.5 ma is not expected, there is some wiggle room with trade estimates between 82 and 85 ma.For the week, July soybeans lost 40 1/4 cents, settling at $10.27 3/4, while November fell 36 cents to $10.24 3/4. July soybean meal dropped $13.00 to $271.10, and July soybean oil slipped 2.02 cents to 52.45 cents. First notice day for July grain contracts is June 30, with expiration on July 14.

WHEAT HIGHLIGHTS:

• Wheat futures halted their recent slide Friday, with gains in Chicago and Minneapolis while Kansas City ended mixed. Support came from a higher close in Matif wheat, strength in corn and soybeans, and optimism around potential progress in U.S.-China trade discussions, prompting a technical bounce.
• Attention now shifts to Monday’s USDA Quarterly Stocks and Acreage Reports. Pre-report estimates peg U.S. wheat stocks at 835 million bushels, significantly above last year’s 696 mb. All-wheat planted acreage is expected to remain unchanged from March at 45.4 million acres—if realized, the second smallest total since 1919.
• According to the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange, Argentina’s wheat crop is 73% planted. This is slightly behind last year’s pace, but above the five-year average, as dry weather has allowed sowing to progress. However, it is being reported that both Argentina and Australian wheat corps are in need of moisture.
• Statistics Canada estimated all-wheat acreage at 26.925 million acres, a reduction from March’s 27.475 million and below trade expectations. Spring wheat acreage was pegged at 18.809 million acres, also down from March (19.4 ma) and under the Bloomberg survey estimate of 19.2 ma.

DAIRY HIGHLIGHTS:

• Class III milk turned green once again to end the week. August futures were nearly limit higher, closing 63 cents up to $18.33.
• Spot cheese was up for a second straight day by 1.875 cents to close at $1.6425/lb. Whey added 0.75 cents to go home at $0.5850/lb.
• Class IV milk futures were relatively quiet with August through October contracts seeing small gains.
• Spot butter was up 2.50 cents to $2.5625/lb while powder was unchanged at $1.25/lb.

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Author

Amanda Brill