TFM Morning Update 07-01-2025

CORN

Corn is trading lower this morning with the September contract falling down to within just one cent of the contract low after yesterday’s Crop Progress report showed conditions improving. Yesterday’s USDA report was a touch friendly to corn.
Yesterday, the USDA said that as of June 29, the corn crop conditions had improved by 3 points to 73% good to excellent. This compares to 67% a year ago at this time. 8% of the corn crop is silking which is behind last year’s pace but ahead of the 5-year average.
Yesterday’s USDA report saw corn acres at 95.2 million which was down slightly from 95.3 in March. This is still up significantly from last year’s 90.6 ma. Grain stocks came in at 4.644 bb which was within analyst expectations and down from 4.997 bb a year ago.

Soybeans are lower to start the day despite a relatively neutral report yesterday and unchanged crop conditions. With these reports out of the way, trade is likely looking back to weather which does not hold many concerns so far. Soybean meal is lower while bean oil is higher.
Yesterday’s Crop Progress report saw soybeans good to excellent ratings unchanged at 66% which compared to 67% a year ago. 94% of the crop is emerged and 3% is setting pods, on par with last year’s pace.
Yesterday’s USDA report showed soybean acres down slightly from the March report at 83.4 million acres, but analysts expected this. It compares to 87.1 ma last year. Grain stocks were 1.008 bb which was slightly above the average trade guess and compared to 970 mb last year.

Both Chicago and KC wheat are trading higher while Minneapolis wheat and the rest of the grains trade lower following a bullish Crop Progress Report but uneventful USDA report yesterday.
Yesterday’s Crop Progress showed both winter wheat and Spring wheat lose 1 point to 48% and 53% good to excellent respectively. Spring wheat conditions are down 19 points from this time last year. 37% of the winter wheat crop has been harvested.
Yesterday’s acreage report showed wheat acres virtually unchanged at 45.5 ma and down slightly from last year’s 46.1 ma. Grain stocks for wheat came in at 851 mb, slightly above the trade guess, and above last year’s 696 mb.

Amanda Brill