CORN HIGHLIGHTS:

• Corn futures ended mixed Monday, with weakness in nearby contracts. After a neutral USDA report, market attention returned to weather forecasts.
• The USDA Acreage report pegged planted corn acres at 95.2 million, slightly below expectations and down 120,000 from March — largely neutral to trade ideas.
• June 1 Quarterly Grain Stocks came in at 4.644 billion bushels, matching expectations and 350 mb below last year, underscoring strong old-crop demand.
• Weekly corn export inspections totaled 1.370 MMT (53.9 mb), keeping the pace 29% above last year and ~140 mb ahead of what’s needed to meet USDA’s export target with eight weeks left.
• The weekly crop conditions report will be released on Monday afternoon. Expectations are for conditions to remain unchanged at 70% G/E — a five-year high for this point in the season.

SOYBEAN HIGHLIGHTS:

• Soybeans ended mixed Monday, with July and August contracts finishing lower while deferred months closed higher. July soybeans are now in delivery and expire July 14. The USDA reports were largely neutral with a slightly bearish tilt, though modest acreage keeps upside potential intact if weather turns threatening. Both soybean meal and oil posted gains.
• USDA pegged planted acreage at 83.38 million acres, nearly matching expectations (83.66 ma) but well below last year’s 87.05 ma. Grain stocks came in at 1.008 billion bushels vs. 970 million last year — slightly bearish but within range.
• Weekly export inspections totaled 8.3 million bushels, soft for the week, but cumulative inspections for 2024/25 are now at 1.685 billion bushels — up 10% from last year. USDA projects exports at 1.850 bb.
• Friday’s CFTC report saw funds as sellers of soybeans by 35,717 contracts which reduced their net long position to 23,448 contracts. They sold 1,824 contracts of bean oil and 2,999 contracts of meal.

WHEAT HIGHLIGHTS:

• Wheat futures closed lower across the board Monday, weighed down by neutral-to-bearish USDA report data, a weaker Matif close, and lack of fresh supportive news. Mixed closes in corn and soybeans offered no spillover strength.
• USDA pegged all wheat acreage at 45.5 million acres — slightly bearish. While below last year’s 46.1 ma, it came in 100,000 acres above both the March intentions and average trade estimates.
• Quarterly wheat stocks were notably bearish at 851 million bushels—above the high end of trade expectations and well above last year’s 696 mb.
• Weekly wheat inspections were 16 mb, bringing total 25/26 inspections to 47 mb, which is down 8% from last year. Inspections are running behind the USDA’s estimated pace. Total 25/26 exports are projected at 825 mb, up 1% from the year prior.
• On a bullish note, Argentina is said to need more moisture for establishment of their winter wheat crop. There is not much precipitation in the forecast, except for scattered showers this weekend. It is a similar story for Australia, with winter wheat areas too dry.
• Western Europe continues to endure heat and dryness early this week, with some relief expected midweek.
• According to a German farming association (DBV) estimate, their nation’s 25/26 grain harvest is expected to total 40.1 mmt, compared to 39 mmt the year prior. This 2.8% increase may be partially due to increased winter crop plantings. Good conditions in the fall allowed for this increase, and 2.78 million hectares of winter wheat were said to be planted.

DAIRY HIGHLIGHTS:

• The rebound in Class III milk continues into the start of this week. July Class III has added $0.68 over the past two sessions while August has tacked on $1.00.
• Cheese buyers have aggressively taken cheap inventory at these levels. A total of 18 loads traded hands today, driving spot cheese up 6.50c in the process.
• Spot butter added 3.75c to $2.60/lb and marking its best close since January 13th.
• Spot powder and whey rounded out a bullish session with small up moves of their own. With how bad the month of June was for dairy, it sure did end strong.
• At today’s close, two Class III 2025 contracts are above $19.00 while five Class IV contracts hold above that mark.

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Author

Brandon Doherty