CORN HIGHLIGHTS:

• Corn futures finished the day lower on Tuesday as improved crop ratings and bullish news was just lacking in the corn market. Nearby corn future traded to new contracts lows before firming as both soybean and wheat markets finished with gains on the day.
• Sellers remained in control following Monday’s USDA Acreage and Grain Stocks reports, which offered few surprises. Strong crop ratings and a building global supply outlook continue to weigh on sentiment.
• The USDA saw a 3% jump in crop ratings in Monday afternoon’s Crop Conditions report to 73% G/E. The market expectation was for unchanged ratings for the week. With the improved crop ratings, market participants are leaning to corn yield to be above trend line yields at this point.
• The U.S. dollar fell to its lowest level since February 2022, helping keep U.S. corn exports competitive relative to South American supplies.
• The weather remains friendly for the development of the corn crop. Long range weather models are forecasting a return to a moderate temperature pattern and still above normal rainfall going into the second half of July.

SOYBEAN HIGHLIGHTS:

• Soybeans closed higher Tuesday, supported by gains in soybean oil following the passage of President Trump’s new bill, which includes favorable biodiesel provisions. November soybeans found support near $10.15, while soybean meal ended lower, marking new yearly lows.
• Yesterday’s Crop Progress report saw soybeans good to excellent ratings unchanged at 66% which compared to 67% a year ago. 94% of the crop is emerged and 3% is setting pods, on par with last year’s pace. Summer weather will be the important factor going forward.
• Monday’s USDA report was mostly neutral. Soybean acres were pegged at 83.38 million, in line with expectations but well below last year’s 87.05 million. Stocks were slightly bearish at 1.008 billion bushels, up from 970 million last year.
• Italy announced plans to boost U.S. soybean imports to help address trade imbalances, and India is reportedly nearing a trade agreement with the U.S.

WHEAT HIGHLIGHTS:

• Wheat futures closed higher across all three classes Tuesday, supported by USDA’s lower harvested acreage estimate — likely reflecting increased abandonment in the Southern Plains — and a weaker U.S. dollar, which hit its lowest level since February 2022.
• USDA crop condition ratings showed winter wheat at 48% good-to-excellent, down 1 point from last week. Harvest progress reached 37%, trailing both last year’s 52% and the five-year average of 42%. Spring wheat was rated 53% G/E, also down 1%, with 96% emerged and 38% headed.
• Argus Media’s latest estimate pegs Ukrainian 25/26 wheat production at 21.9 mmt, down from 23.7 mmt previously. This would also be down 2.5% from the 24/25 season. The update comes after a virtual crop tour in June.
• Ukraine finished their export season on June 30, with a total of 40.6 mmt of grain shipments. That is down about 21% from last year’s total. Wheat in particular accounted for 15.7 mmt of exports, which was down 15% year over year.
• According to an announcement from the Rosario Grain Exchange yesterday, Argentina’s dry and cool weather forecast should boost planting of the 25/26 wheat crop. Additionally, yields are expected to increase due to good soil moisture levels. The RGE expects planted area to reach 7.1 million hectares, up from 6.9 million last season.

DAIRY HIGHLIGHTS:

• After a nice upturn, Class III futures took a break today with double-digit losses in the nearby contracts.
• Spot cheese was up 1.6250 cents to move to $1.72375/lb. Whey was unchanged.
• Class IV milk futures saw July and August up 6 and 5 cents, respectively, while the rest were unchanged.
• Both spot butter and powder were up a quarter cent today. This brought butter to a new 6-month high.
• Today’s Global Dairy Trade Auction saw the index fall 4.10%, the fourth lower auction in a row.

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Author

John Heinberg