TFM Midday Update 7-3-2025

The CME and Total Farm Marketing Offices will be closed Friday, July 4, in Observance of Independence Day

CORN

The USDA announced a flash sale of corn this morning, totaling 150,000 mt. It was sold to an unknown destination for the 24/25 marketing year.
The USDA reported an increase of 21.0 mb of corn export sales for 24/25 and an increase of 37.0 mb for 25/26.
This evening, President Trump will speak in Des Moines, Iowa. Traders are hopeful for an announcement of progress being made towards a trade deal with China.
Spec traders are estimated to have purchased around 16,000 corn contracts yesterday, which would reduce the fund net-short position to around 165,000 contracts.

This morning the USDA announced a flash sale of soybeans, in the amount of 226,000 mt, sold to an unknown destination for the 24/25 marketing year. There was also a sale of 195,000 mt of soybean meal to unknown.
The USDA reported an increase of 17.0 mb of soybean export sales for 24/25 and an increase of 8.8 mb to 25/26.
Yesterday President Trump announced a trade agreement with Vietnam, which has added to the bullish move in the markets. Vietnam is one of the top 10 buyers of US soybeans and meal.
Traders will be watching for the vote on the “big beautiful” budget bill. It passed the Senate and moves onto the House of Representatives today. It includes the structure for biofuel tax incentives, which will impact soybean oil.

Both winter wheat futures classes are at or near moving average technical resistance. In addition to harvest pressure, this may help to explain why it is lagging behind corn and soybean futures at midday.
The USDA reported an increase of 21.5 mb of wheat export sales for 25/26, and 0 mb for 26/27.
Reportedly, there are growing concerns in Kansas about the prevalence of wheat streak mosaic virus, which could ultimately impact yields.
Spring wheat areas in the northwestern US are seeing expanding drought readings. This has helped MIAX spring wheat futures to rally about 30 cents in the past couple of sessions on concerns about declining crop conditions.

Brandon Doherty