The CME and Total Farm Marketing Offices will be closed Friday, July 4, in Observance of Independence Day

CORN HIGHLIGHTS:

• Corn futures saw some follow-through buying on Thursday after Wednesday’s strong price action. Corn futures prices softened off session highs but managed to hold support at the end of the day. A bump in export demand and firm export sales supported the corn market during the session.
• Grain markets anticipated President Trump’s remarks in Iowa on July 3. Traders have likely trimmed short positions for the prospects of some trade announcement by the President during his speech.
• USDA released weekly export sales totals on Thursday morning. For the week ending June 26, US exporters reported new net sales of 532,700 MT (21 mb) for the 2024/2025 marketing year. This was down 28% from last week. For the new crop, exporters reported new net sales of 940,200 MT (37 mb) for 2025/2026 for the marketing year. For the 2024-25 marketing year, total sales have reached 2.681 BB, which is 6 mb above the USDA target of 2.675 BB for the marketing year.
• The USDA announced a flash export sale of corn on Thursday. Unknown destinations purchased 150,000 MT (5.9 mb) of corn for the 2024-25 marketing year. With recent price weakness and soft US dollar, US corn has become more competitive in the export market.
• After the 4th of July weekend, the market will shift back to weather for the second half of July into August. This will be a key time for grain fill in corn and soybean crops. If the weather forecast remains favorable for crops, sellers will likely step back into the market.

SOYBEAN HIGHLIGHTS:

• Soybeans ended the day higher with the majority of gains in the front months after prices faded from earlier highs. Funds have been buyers the past two days despite good weather as they anticipate a potential trade deal announcement from President Trump. Soybean meal ended the day higher while bean oil followed crude lower.
• Today’s export sales report was friendly for soybeans with the USDA reporting an increase of 17.0 million bushels for 24/25 and 8.8 mb for 25/26. This was up 15% from the previous week and up 62% from the prior 4-week average. Top buyers were unknown destinations, Egypt, and the United Kingdom. Last week’s export shipments of 9.2 mb were below the 14.0 mb needed each week to meet USDA estimates.
• Today, the House voted to pass the 2025 budget bill which included 45Z framework for biodiesel. With the 4th of July holiday tomorrow, the markets will re-open Sunday night, and we will see how the soybean oil market reacts.
• For the week, July soybeans gained 28-1.2 cents at $10.56-1/4 while November soybeans gained 24-3/4 cents to $10.64-1/2. August soybean meal gained $1.80 to $277.40 while August soybean oil gained 2.07 cents to 54.55 cents.

WHEAT HIGHLIGHTS:

• Wheat closed in the red, despite a positive finish for corn and soybeans. It appears a combination of winter wheat harvest pressure and futures running into technical resistance caused wheat to lose upward momentum today. A rebound for the US Dollar Index was also unsupportive.
• The USDA reported an increase of 21.5 mb of wheat export sales for 25/26. Shipments last week at 20.3 exceeded the 15.8 mb pace needed per week to reach their 825 mb export goal. Total 25/26 export commitments have risen to 264 mb, up 4% from last year.
• President Trump is expected to speak tonight in Des Moines, Iowa. Producers are hopeful that he may announce progress towards a trade deal with China. With markets closed tomorrow for the 4th of July, this could lead to a volatile trade early next week.
• According to the USDA, as of July 1, an estimated 24% of the winter wheat area is experiencing drought conditions, up 4% from last week. Spring wheat areas in drought also increased 4% during that period, to 29%. Expanding dryness in the northwestern US has caused some concerns about spring wheat crop conditions. Details remain limited. Broader trade optimism added support to grain markets.

DAIRY HIGHLIGHTS:

• Second month August Class III futures closed up 16 cents today at $18.40 amid good gains for the Class III market overall.
• Spot cheese was up half a cent today to finish at $1.7025/lb, up 6 cents on the week. Whey added 2.25 cents from last Friday to finish at $0.6075/lb.
• The July and October Class IV contracts closed with small gains today while the rest were unchanged.
• Spot butter was up 2.50 cents today and 4.25 cents on the week with a $2.6050/lb finish. Powder was up a penny this week.
• Please see below for a breakdown of today’s Dairy Export and Dairy Products Production Report for May.

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Author

Brandon Doherty