TFM Midday Update 07-07-2025

CORN

Corn futures remained under pressure at midday after gapping lower on Sunday night’s open. Forecasts calling for timely rainfall across the Corn Belt this week—just as pollination begins for many fields—are weighing heavily on the market.
The USDA reported private export sales of 135,000 metric tons (MT) of corn to Mexico. Of the total, 29,000 MT are scheduled for delivery during the 2024/25 marketing year, while 106,000 MT are for 2025/26 delivery.
Corn demand remains strong, with ethanol production running above seasonal norms and exports up 27% year-over-year. As of last week, $4.20 corn in Iowa yielded $5.92 in product value, reflecting solid margins. USDA reports 2.213 billion bushels shipped so far in 2024-25, keeping pace to meet the 2.650 bb export target by August 31.

Soybean futures are sharply lower at midday after gapping lower on the Sunday night market open.
Ongoing uncertainty around trade talks with China and other Asian countries continues to pressure U.S. soybean prices. The key test will be China’s buying activity this fall. A positive sign: August FOB soybean prices in Brazil remain 36 cents per bushel higher than in the U.S., despite Brazil’s record harvest earlier this year.
Last Monday, USDA estimated one bushel of $10.31 soybeans in Illinois could yield $12.73 in products—an incentive for continued strong crush demand.

Wheat futures opened the week lower across all classes, tracking weakness in corn and soybean markets.
Concerns remain over dry, hot conditions impacting the Russian wheat crop, while forecasts for rain and cooler temperatures in Europe and Ukraine offer some relief to their recent heat stress.
USDA’s estimate of 10 million U.S. spring wheat acres marks the lowest since 1970, as dry conditions in Montana and parts of Canada raise further concerns. As of last Monday, just 53% of the crop was rated good to excellent—well below the 72% rating from a year ago.

Keegan Madigan