TFM Midday Update 07-11-2025

CORN

Corn futures are trading lower during midday trade as market participants remain cautious ahead of the USDA’s WASDE report, scheduled for release today at 11 a.m. Central Time.
According to a Dow Jones survey, the WASDE report is expected to lower the estimate for new-crop U.S. corn ending stocks from 1.750 bb to 1.733 bb, though some analysts anticipate a deeper cut.
The portion of U.S. corn acreage under drought conditions remains unchanged at 12%, up from 7% at this time last year.
Brazil’s corn harvest is just over 40% complete, while Argentina has reached 70.4% completion.
French corn conditions declined by 3% this week, while China’s Agriculture Ministry reported heavy rainfall across northern crop regions, warning of potential significant flooding over the next 10 days.

Soybean futures are trading lower at midday as traders await the USDA’s WASDE report, questioning whether it will offer any data substantial enough to shift the bearish sentiment that has weighed on the soy complex in recent weeks. Both soybeans and soybean meal are under pressure, while soybean oil is posting modest gains.
According to a Dow Jones survey, the WASDE report is expected to raise the estimate for new-crop U.S. soybean ending stocks from 295 mb to 304 mb.
USDA confirms the sale of 219,900 tons of U.S. soybeans for delivery to Mexico for the 25/26 year.
Tariff uncertainty continues to weigh on soybean markets, as President Trump stated that the European Union would receive a letter today regarding potential tariff measures.
Some U.S. soybean-growing areas are expected to receive relief next week, with precipitation forecasted across most of Iowa and parts of northern Illinois.

Wheat futures are trading lower during Friday’s midday session as traders remain cautious ahead of the USDA data release later this morning. The market is bracing for slightly lower production estimates and modest declines in both old- and new-crop ending stocks.
U.S. winter wheat drought conditions worsened, with 25% of the crop now under drought—up 1% from last week and significantly higher than 20% at this time last year. HRS wheat drought also increased by 6% to 35%.
Ukraine’s wheat harvest has started slowly, with just 1.2 million tons harvested so far—down 78% compared to this time last year. In Argentina, the wheat crop is 91% planted, while France’s harvest progress has accelerated significantly, reaching 36% complete compared to 15% at the same point last year.
Dry conditions in Western Australia are expected to reduce the regional wheat crop by 24% compared to last year. Meanwhile, LSEG has lowered China’s wheat production forecast by 1.2%, despite official Chinese government estimates remaining unchanged.

Lauren VandenLangenberg