TFM Morning Update 07-16-2025

CORN

Corn is trading higher early Wednesday, extending Monday’s bullish reversal and attempting to hold above the $4 mark.
Traders expect last week’s ethanol production to average between 1.08 and 1.1 million barrels per day, according to Wednesday’s EIA report. The previous week averaged 1.085 million bpd, with production for the marketing year running 3.7% above last year.
After an unusually warm start to July, more above-normal heat is forecast for the second half of the month, raising concerns about potential pollination issues.

Soybeans are trading higher this morning as futures attempt to bounce off of the $10.00 support level that was tested and held to start the week.
President Trump announced a trade deal with Indonesia on Tuesday, with early details indicating the framework includes $4.5 billion in annual U.S. agricultural product purchases.
Wednesday’s NOPA report showed June soybean crush at 185.7 million bushels — a record for the month, though down nearly 4% from May as expected. Soybean oil stocks fell to 1.366 billion pounds, the lowest June level in over 20 years, per Reuters.

All three wheat classes are holding onto gains to start Wednesday, following corn and soybean futures higher.
SovEcon reports Russia’s 2025 wheat harvest is off to a slow start, with early yields trailing those of 2024.
USDA reported 63% of the U.S. winter wheat crop harvested as of July 13, just 1% behind the five-year average. Spring wheat conditions improved 4% to 54% good-to-excellent, likely due to recent rains in parts of Montana, North Dakota, and Minnesota.

Keegan Madigan