CORN HIGHLIGHTS:

• Corn futures posted modest gains Tuesday, but December failed to break above the $4.20 level or the 10-day moving average, leaving the market vulnerable to renewed selling.
• Crop conditions held steady at 74% good-to-excellent — matching expectations and marking the second-best rating in the past decade for this time of year (trailing only 2016 at 76% G/E).
• The strong ratings improve the chances for a possible higher than trendline yield. In 2016, final corn yield was 3.9% higher than trend line yield after peaking at 4.6% over trend line on the September 2016 WASDE report. Participants in the corn market are likely pricing in a 3-4% possible over trend yield, which would significantly increase the carryout for the 2025-26 marketing year. Weather will be a big factor in determining the final yield.
• The U.S. dollar has rallied nine straight sessions, raising concerns over export competitiveness.
• Brazilian corn harvest pace continues to expand but is well behind historical pace. Ag analyst firm, AgRural estimates that Brazil second crop corn harvest is 40% complete as of last Thursday. This is 12% higher than last week, but well behind the 74% completed from last year in this time window.

SOYBEAN HIGHLIGHTS:

• Soybeans ended the day lower with the front months once again posting the brunt of the losses. November futures posted an inside day lower with the high at $10.10 and the low at $10.00. Crop progress results were bearish as good weather supports development. Soybean meal was lower while bean oil was higher.
• NOPA’s June crush came in at 185.71 million bushels — above expectations and the highest June total on record. Though down 3.7% from May, it was up 5.8% year-over-year.
• Yesterday’s Crop Progress report saw soybean crop ratings improve 4 points from last week to 70% good to excellent. This was also 2 points higher than last year at this time. 47% of the crop is blooming and 15% is setting pods.
• Yesterday’s export sales report saw soybean sales on the poor side at 147k tons which compared to 400k the previous week and 175k tons a year ago. Top buyers were Mexico, Egypt, and Japan.

WHEAT HIGHLIGHTS:

• Wheat futures closed mixed Tuesday — Minneapolis and Kansas City posted slight gains while Chicago slipped — amid lingering bearish pressure from last week’s WASDE, which pegged 2025/26 U.S. ending stocks at a six-year high.
• Spring wheat conditions improved more than expected, with 54% rated good-to-excellent, up 4 points from last week. Winter wheat harvest reached 63% complete, slightly behind average.
• CONAB has reported Brazilian wheat has been planted on 79.5% of the projected area as of July 5. Additionally, they are estimating that the crop will reach 7.81 mmt, down 4.6% from the June estimate. Planted area is expected to decline 16.5% to 2.55 million hectares, though productivity is anticipated to increased 18.7% to 3.06 tons per hectare.
• IKAR has lowered their wheat production forecast for Russia by 0.5 mmt to 84 mmt and also reduced their export estimate by .05 mmt to 42 mmt. For reference, the USDA is using at 83.5 mmt production figure, and 46 mmt for exports.
• On a bearish note, the French farm ministry has estimated their nation’s 2025 soft wheat production at 32.6 mmt. If accurate, this would be a 27% jump over last year’s harvest due to an estimated 19% increase in yields. However, this would be only 2.4% above average, as last year’s wheat crop struggled with excess rain.
• Morocco is set to import its first U.S. wheat shipment this month (100,000 MT), with total purchases possibly reaching 600,000 MT for the season — roughly 6% of its grain imports.

DAIRY HIGHLIGHTS:

• Class III milk futures were pressured lower once again as sellers hit the cheese market. The August contract led futures lower, falling 21 cents to close at $17.22.
• Spot cheese fell for a fourth straight day, dropping 2 cents to $1.6375/lb. Whey improved half a cent to $0.5725/lb.
• Class IV milk futures suffered the same fate as the Class III market with August through October contracts seeing double-digit losses.
• Spot butter fell 4 cents to $2.54/lb which pressured Class IV prices. Powder tacked on 0.75 cents to close at $1.2750/lb.
• Today’s Global Dairy Trade auction event improved 1.10% to 1,259 points, which is 13 points better than the last auction and 178 points better than where the index finished in July 2024.

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Author

John Heinberg