CORN HIGHLIGHTS:

• Corn futures closed higher for the third straight session, supported by fund short covering, above-normal temperature forecasts, and outside market volatility.
• Managed funds continued to unwind large short positions, contributing to gains despite declining open interest.
• Talk of President Trump removing Fed Chair Powell from his position had markets on edge during the session. The potential pressured the U.S. dollar lower for the first time in nine sessions, supporting grain markets. Comments by President Trump later in the day denying Chair Powell’s possible removal brought volatility to the markets.
• Weekly ethanol production rose slightly to 1.087 million barrels/day, using 105.1 million bushels of corn — just below the pace needed to hit USDA’s annual target.
• Hot weather is forecast into late July across parts of the Corn Belt, with much of the crop entering pollination and early grain fill, adding modest weather premium to prices.

SOYBEAN HIGHLIGHTS:

• Soybean futures surged Wednesday after three days of losses, as traders responded to oversold technicals and a weaker U.S. dollar. Soybean meal and oil also posted gains.
• This morning, private exporters reported sales of 120,000 metric tons of soybeans for delivery to unknown destinations during the 25/26 marketing year. Export sales have been on the slow side, but the reduction in planted acreage this year should provide support with reduced supply.
• June NOPA crush totaled 185.71 mb, a record for the month and above expectations—down 3.7% from May, but up 5.8% year-over-year. The market remains cautious about excess soybean meal from increased crush demand for oil.
• On Tuesday, President Trump announced a trade deal with Indonesia with early details indicating framework that includes $4.5 billion in annual U.S. agricultural product purchases.

WHEAT HIGHLIGHTS:

• Wheat futures ended mixed Wednesday: Chicago posted small gains, while Kansas City and Minneapolis saw slight losses. A sharp drop in the U.S. dollar — following speculation about Fed Chair Powell’s future — offered some support before President Trump denied any firing plans.
• Midwest rains are expected over the next week, but drier conditions in the Southern Plains should allow the hard red winter (HRW) wheat harvest to pick up pace.
• Algeria reportedly purchased 1 MMT of wheat at $256/MT CNF, $12 above their previous buy. Most of the wheat is expected to come from the Black Sea, with some potentially from the Baltic region.
• SovEcon has increased their estimate of Russian wheat production by 0.6 mmt to 83.6 mmt. This comes just a day after IKAR decreased their estimate by 0.5 mmt to 84 mmt. This has both groups inching closer to the USDA’s forecast of 83.5 mmt. Additionally, SovEcon has said that Russia’s wheat harvest is going slowly, with them having collected 11 mmt through July 11; this is down 56% from the 24.8 mmt harvested at this time last year.

DAIRY HIGHLIGHTS:

• Class III milk futures rebounded during midweek trading, with the August contract rising 24 cents to close at $17.46.
• After four consecutive days of losses, spot cheese held steady today, closing unchanged at $1.63750/lb. Whey also remained flat, closing at $0.5725/lb.
• Class IV milk showed some improvement, with the August contract rising 6 cents to close at $19.10.
• Spot butter posted losses again today, dropping 1 cent to close at $2.5300/lb. Meanwhile, spot powder was the only spot market to gain, rising 0.50 cents to close at $1.2800/lb.

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Author

Amanda Brill