TFM Morning Update 07-21-2025

CORN

Corn is trading lower this morning following significant gains on Friday and in general last week. December corn gained back 15-1/2 cents on the week after making new contract lows.
There have been recent reductions in area on the drought monitor, but both the 6-10 day and 8-14 day forecast show below normal precipitation throughout the Southern half of the Corn Belt which will be accompanied with above normal temperatures.
Friday’s Commitment of Traders report saw funds buying back corn as of July 15. They bought back 29,106 contracts which reduced their net short position to 174,755 contracts. They likely bought back more contracts in the following days.

Soybeans are trading lower to start the day following big gains over the past three trading days and are trading right at resistance in the November contract where the major moving averages have congregated. Both soybean meal and oil are lower as well.
Some of the pressure this morning may be coming from a slight shift in weather models which show light rain falling on the Midwest’s soybean crop while the Delta stays dry. The forecast into August is hot with below average rain.
Friday’s CFTC report saw funds as sellers of 26,062 contracts of soybeans which increased their net short position to 32,278 contracts. They bought 5,480 contracts of bean oil and sold 1,537 contracts of meal.

Wheat is mixed to start the week with Chicago and KC wheat trading higher while Minneapolis trades slightly lower. Tomorrow, the Wheat Quality Council’s Crop Tour will begin, and trade may be anticipating poor crop ratings.
The European Union has put sanctions on Russia and has specifically targeted the petroleum industry which could boost prices as Russia exports a lot of wheat to Europe.
Friday’s CFTC report saw funds selling 4,893 contracts of Chicago wheat which increased their net short position to 60,487 contracts. They also sold 4,683 contracts of KC wheat which left them short 48,002 contracts.

Amanda Brill